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AS mogo
Łotwa
AS mogo leases and lends against cars in Latvia and belongs to Eleving Group. Mintos investors have lent it money, though little is outstanding there since October 2026. Our memo scores it 53 out of 100, a C, and puts the chance it fails to pay within a year at about 5.2% on its own.
Kluczowe dane
- Średnie oprocentowanie
- 13.99%
- średnia, niegwarantowana
- Portfel pożyczek
- €50,034
- Już od
- €50
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Analiza AI
AILender memo · AS mogo · Latvia
AS mogo: how likely is it to fail to pay its lenders?
AS mogo is a Latvian leasing company — car leases, car loans and instalment loans — and the original lender the Eleving group grew out of. It has 33 staff. Mintos investors lend to it through a Mintos company. This memo asks one question: what is the chance it fails to pay its lenders back in the next 12 months, and why. It replaces our memo of 13 September 2026, which scored it a D at 47 and described the parent's support as a letter of comfort. The prospectus shows it is a guarantee, and the score is now a C.
Update, 9 November 2026In October 2026 Eleving Group repaid most of the money its companies had borrowed on Mintos, using a new €200 million bond (9%, due 2032). On 9 November 2026 Mintos showed €50,034 lent to AS mogo by its investors (13 September: €7.3 million). The company is still listed as active on Mintos, but there is little or nothing to invest in now. Eleving uses Mintos as a flexible source of money and has come back before. This memo describes the risk if its notes return or if you still hold some. Eleving also said in October 2026 that its 13% bonds due 2028 would be exchanged or repaid early by 2 November 2026; what this memo says about those bonds dates from before that.
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. This memo was prepared with the help of AI from publicly available documents. It is general information for education only — not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything, and it does not take account of your circumstances. Figures may contain errors; check them against the original documents. Investing through P2P platforms can result in the loss of all money invested.
Our score
53/ 100
C Watch
ABCDE
about 5.2%on its own — about 1 in 19
about 3.0%with Eleving Group's guarantee to the Mintos company — about 1 in 33
Where those sit on our scale
On its own a C carries a portfolio limit of 6%. With the guarantee the odds become the parent's, and what this company represents counts inside whatever room the Eleving group as a whole is given — 12% on our scale. Latvia is a B country and would allow 25% for all its lenders added together, which does not bind here. These caps are a convention of our scale, applied to every lender we cover. They are not advice about your money.
Profitable again, but thin — and in substance this is Eleving exposure with a Latvian label
It has turned round, and the turn is small. AS mogo made €0.14m in 2025 after losing €0.97m in 2024. Of every €100 of income it kept €2.20 last year, against a loss of €24.88 the year before. Its loan book doubled, from €12.1m to €24.0m. Earnings covered interest only 1.12 times, and a fall of 2.9% in income would wipe out the year's pre-tax profit of €0.19m.
The cushion is not what the balance sheet first suggests. Owners' money is €22.2m — but €19.1m of that is shares in two sister companies, Primero Finance in Estonia and mogo rent, and both of those holdings are pledged to Eleving's bondholders. Take them out and what is left to absorb losses on a €24.0m loan book is about €3.1m.
And the funding is the group. 94% of its borrowing — €18.6m of €19.8m on the balance sheet — comes from companies in the same group, at 12%. The loans themselves are €18.4m; the rest is interest owed on them. It has had no bank or bond funding of its own since its Riga bonds were repaid in April 2024.
So the answer turns on Eleving, and Eleving has given a guarantee. The Mintos base prospectus of 27 March 2026 says that Eleving Group S.A. "guarantees the Lending Company's obligations towards the Issuer" — the Issuer being the Mintos company that holds these loans. Eleving is rated B by Fitch, outlook positive, affirmed 12 December 2025, and under our method that rating sets the odds: about 1 in 33. The guarantee runs to the Mintos company, not to you directly.
Support runs the other way too, and that one has no cap. AS mogo is one of 13 subsidiaries that jointly guarantee Eleving's bonds — €342.6m outstanding at the end of 2025, about 15 times its own equity — with pledges over its shares, receivables, trademarks and bank accounts. Latvian law sets no cap on such a guarantee. That is harmless while Eleving pays and decisive if it does not. If Eleving failed, its bondholders would be claiming on AS mogo alongside Mintos.
Six things would stop us scoring at all and send the answer straight to E — a default, a missed payment to a platform, a regulator pulling a licence, an auditor doubting the company can continue, a broken promise to a lender, or accounts we cannot rely on. None of them applies to this company. Two things would pull the answer the other way, a guarantee from a stronger owner or a credit rating. One of them does apply, and it is the only reason this memo gives a second number.
💶Financial strengthD
Back in profit: €0.14m in 2025 after a €0.97m loss. Interest covered only 1.12 times.
📉Loan bookD
The book doubled to €24.0m; payments more than sixty days late fell to about 3.2% — partly because bad loans are sold.
🇱🇻Country: LatviaB
Grade B (3.74 out of 5). The euro, and a cost cap that has not moved since 2019. The 3 October election returned the incumbent.
⚖️Group and other risksC
Funded 94% by the group, and guarantees €342.6m of Eleving bonds with no legal cap.
Most of its owners' money is shares in two sister lenders, and both are pledged to someone else.Of €22.2m of equity, €19.1m is its holdings in Primero Finance OÜ (Estonia) and AS "mogo rent". Those are real assets, but they are not money standing in front of a Latvian lease book: they are shares in two other lending companies, and both holdings are pledged to Eleving's bondholders. What is left to absorb losses on this company's own €24.0m of lending is about €3.1m — 7% of what it owns. The money also goes in circles: mogo rent, which AS mogo owns, has lent about €3.5m back to it.
It guarantees €342.6m of its parent's bonds — about 15 times its own equity — and Latvian law puts no cap on that.AS mogo is one of 13 subsidiaries jointly guaranteeing Eleving's 9.5% bonds due 2030 (€270.0m outstanding at the end of 2025, of €275m issued) and its 13% bonds due 2028 (€72.6m of €90m). It has pledged its shares, receivables, trademarks and bank accounts to them. Unlike some jurisdictions, Latvian law sets no ceiling on a guarantee of this kind — only a corporate-benefit test. This is the single fact that makes AS mogo and Eleving the same risk rather than two.
What changed since our memo of 13 September.That memo scored this company 47 — a D, and described the parent's support as a letter of comfort. The Mintos base prospectus of 27 March 2026 shows it is a guarantee: Eleving Group S.A. "guarantees the Lending Company's obligations towards the Issuer". Under our method a confirmed guarantee from a rated parent sets the odds to the parent's, and the score itself rises to 53 — a C. We were too harsh, and the document that corrects us is one we now have. The two caveats stand: the guarantee runs to the Mintos company rather than to investors, and the same prospectus says the guarantor "is not guaranteeing Mintos or the Issuer's obligations towards the Investors".
Why this number matters
Every investment carries risk, and risk is not really a letter or a mark out of ten. It is two plain questions: how likely is it that this company fails, and how much of your money would you lose if it did. Put those together and you can see whether the reward is worth it.
For AS mogo: Mintos showed an average investor rate of 13.99% a year on 9 November 2026, on the little still outstanding. On our reading the chance of the company behind it failing in the next twelve months is about 3.0% — the parent's number, because of the guarantee. If about 1 in 33 lenders like this one fail in a year and about 70% of the money is gone when they do, the risk costs about 2.1% a year, and about 11.9% is left once the risk is paid for. On the company's own number instead of the parent's, the risk cost would be about 3.6% and about 10.4% would be left. That is our arithmetic on our own scale, and you are entitled to disagree with the scale; what you should not do is read the 13.99% on its own.
Three things worth holding on to
1. This is Eleving exposure with a Latvian label
The group funds it, guarantees it, owns it — and it guarantees the group back without a cap. Reading AS mogo as a separate Latvian company is the main way to get this wrong.
2. A doubled book has not been tested yet
Half of this loan book was written in 2025. Loans go bad in their second year, not their first, so arrears of about 3.2% are a promise rather than a record.
3. The cushion is thinner than €22.2m
Nearly all of it is shares in two sister lenders, and those are pledged elsewhere. About €3.1m is what actually stands behind the lending.
What it is
A Latvian leasing companyFounded in 2012 and the original car lender the Eleving group grew from. 33 staff on the 2025 filing.
What it sells
Car leases, car loans, instalment loansOf a €24.0m gross book at the end of 2025: leasing €12.6m, car loans €5.7m, instalment loans €5.6m — which add to €23.9m, a tenth short of the total, because each is rounded. The last of the three has no car behind it.
How big
The book doubled in 2025From €12.1m to €24.2m gross. Income of €6.5m, profit of €0.14m.
Who owns it
AS Eleving StellaAll of it, within Eleving Group S.A. of Luxembourg — rated B by Fitch, outlook positive. AS mogo in turn owns Primero Finance OÜ and AS "mogo rent".
Platform
Mintos, as "Eleving Group LV (AS mogo)"The notes are issued by SIA Mintos Finance No. 1. You do not lend to AS mogo directly.
How much is actually lent
€0.05mOutstanding on 9 November 2026 (€50,034), on the platform's own figure. On 13 September 2026 it showed €6.4m, and a printout taken the same day €7.3m. See the update at the top.
Rate and protection
13.99%, buyback plus a parent guaranteeThe average investor rate shown on 9 November 2026. Buyback varies by note series, and Eleving Group guarantees AS mogo's obligations to the Mintos company.
The platform's own score
Mintos Risk Score 9.4Updated 9 October 2026 and read on 9 November 2026 (9.3 in July) — a high score. That is Mintos's number, not ours, and we have not checked how it is built.
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