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ExpressCredit
Botswana
ExpressCredit makes payroll loans in Botswana and belongs to Eleving Group. It is listed on Mintos, where nothing was outstanding on 9 November 2026. Our memo scores it 59 out of 100, a C, and puts the chance it fails to pay within a year at about 3% with its parent's guarantee.
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AILoan originator memo · ExpressCredit · Botswana
ExpressCredit: how likely is it to fail to pay its lenders?
This memo answers one question: the chance that ExpressCredit (Proprietary) Limited — the Botswana payroll lender Mintos investors lend to — fails to pay its lenders in the next 12 months, and why. It replaces our memo of 14 September 2026. The grade is unchanged, but two documents have since been read that change what stands behind it in both directions.
Update, 9 November 2026In October 2026 Eleving Group repaid most of the money its companies had borrowed on Mintos, using a new €200 million bond (9%, due 2032). On 9 November 2026 Mintos showed €0 lent to ExpressCredit by its investors (13 September: €1.3 million). The company is still listed as active on Mintos, but there is little or nothing to invest in now. Eleving uses Mintos as a flexible source of money and has come back before. This memo describes the risk if its notes return or if you still hold some.
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. This memo was prepared with the help of AI from publicly available documents. It is general information for education only — not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything, and it does not take account of your circumstances. Figures may contain errors; check them against the original documents. Investing through P2P platforms can result in the loss of all money invested.
Our score
59/ 100
C Watch
ABCDE
3.0%about 1 in 33 with its parent's guarantee to the Mintos issuer — the number that counts for a lender on that platform
4.0%about 1 in 25 for ExpressCredit on its own, without the guarantee
Where that sits on our scale
The letter does not move with a guarantee — only the odds and the limit do. So this is a C, with a portfolio limit of 12% on the guaranteed odds rather than the 6% its own would carry, inside Botswana's 15% and counted within the Eleving group. These caps are a convention of our scale, applied to every lender we cover. They are not advice about your money.
A profitable payroll lender that carries its parent's currency risk
What it does is simple and it works. It lends to people whose employer deducts the repayment from their pay — mostly Botswana government employees — in amounts from P2,000 to P500,000, averaging P38,920 over 44 months. The book grew 65% in 2025 to P508.3m, and defaulted loans fell from 13.5% of it to 7.9%, with 89% of them provided for.
The profit halved while it grew, and the reason is on the page. It kept 5.47 pula of every 100 in 2023, 27.67 in 2024 and 13.23 in 2025. 2024 was the unusual year, not 2025: bad debts were abnormally low and the money was cheap. In 2025 bad debts went back to normal and the interest bill rose to 28.08 pula of every 100 as its parent's euro loan replaced cheaper funding.
The biggest single risk is not credit, it is currency. It borrows in euros from its parent and lends in pula. The net short position was P270.5m at the end of 2025 — 2.34 times owners' money, against P26.6m a year earlier. Its own accounts say a fifth fall in the pula would cost P54.1m, which would turn 2025's P25.7m of pre-tax profit into a loss of about P28.4m. The only hedge disclosed expired on 26 March 2026.
Two arrangements run in opposite directions, and both were confirmed since our last memo. For a lender on the platform, Eleving Group S.A. guarantees this company's obligations to the Mintos issuer — which is why there are two numbers above. Against it, ExpressCredit has pledged its shares, receivables, trademarks and bank accounts to secure its parent's €270.0m of bonds. Its own accounts mention neither.
Six things would stop us scoring at all and send the answer straight to E — a default, a missed payment to a platform, a regulator pulling a licence, an auditor doubting the company can continue, a broken promise to a lender, or accounts we cannot rely on. None of them applies. One came close: in 2025 the owner took back more than the year’s profit, and a second such year would be a veto on its own. Two things would pull the answer the other way, a guarantee from a stronger owner or a credit rating. One of them applies. Eleving Group S.A. guarantees this company’s obligations to the Mintos issuer, and the parent’s odds are better than its own — so the page carries two numbers, and the better one is the one that counts for a lender on that platform.
💶Financial strengthC
Kept 13.23 pula of every 100 in 2025, down from 27.67. Interest covered 1.61 times after bad debts.
📉Loan bookC
Defaulted loans 7.9% of the book, 89% provided for. Repayments come out of the payroll.
🇧🇼Country: BotswanaC
3.23 out of 5. Its borrowers are paid by a government short of money, and the pula is designed to fall.
⚖️Group and other risksC
74% of its borrowing is one euro loan from its parent; it has pledged its assets for that parent's bonds.
It borrows in euros and lends in pula, and the pula is designed to fall.The parent's loan of €18.18m is in euros; every loan it makes is in pula. The net short position was P270.5m at the end of 2025, 2.34 times owners' money — against P26.6m a year earlier, so this grew with the book. Botswana's exchange-rate policy includes a built-in slide of 2.76% a year, which on that position costs about P7.5m, or 29% of 2025's pre-tax profit, before anything goes wrong. A forward contract ran from 24 September 2025 to 26 March 2026 and cost P4.9m; P9.6m of hedging deposits sat on the balance sheet at the year end. No hedge after March 2026 is disclosed.
One more year of payouts above profit would be a veto on its own accounts.In March 2025 the owner took back P40m of share capital — 203% of the year's P19.7m profit. Nothing was paid out in 2023 or 2024, and no 2026 figures are published. Our method vetoes a lender that pays its owners more than it earns two years running, so this is a single year to watch rather than a finding: as it stands the cushion fell from 39.3% of assets to 22.1%, which is the capital going out and the book growing 65% at the same time.
The accounts do not mention either of the two arrangements that matter most.The pledge of its assets for its parent's bonds is in the parent's bond prospectus. The security given to the Mintos issuer, and the guarantee running the other way, are in the Mintos base prospectus. Neither appears in this company's own 2025 accounts. The related-party note also gives the parent loan as P228.8m while the borrowings note gives P278.9m — the cash drawn against the balance owed. A reader with only the audited accounts would not know what this company has promised.
Why this number matters
Every investment carries risk, and risk is not really a letter or a mark out of ten. It is two plain questions: how likely is it that this company fails, and how much of your money would you lose if it did. Put those together and you can see whether the reward is worth it.
For ExpressCredit the sum looks like this. The odds that count on the platform are 3.0% — about 1 in 33 — because the guarantee is given to the company that issues the notes. If a lender fails, our house assumption is that about 70% of the money is lost, so the risk costs about 2.1% a year. The average rate offered was 8.38% in September 2026, when notes were on offer, which leaves about 6.3% once the risk is paid for. Without the guarantee the same sum starts from 4.0%, and that is the number to use if you think the parent would not pay.
Three things worth holding on to
1. A guarantee moves the odds, never the letter
Our method lets a confirmed guarantee from a stronger owner set the odds and the limit. It does not change the grade, because the grade describes the company — and the company is the same one either way.
2. The guarantee is to the issuer, not to you
The prospectus says the guarantor "is not guaranteeing Mintos or the Issuer's obligations towards the Investors". It stands behind ExpressCredit's promises to the Mintos company. That is worth a great deal and it is not the same as a promise to you.
3. A currency gap is a cost even when nothing happens
Botswana's pula is set to slide about 2.76% a year by policy. On a P270.5m gap that is roughly 29% of a year's pre-tax profit, every year, with no crisis required.
What it is
A licensed micro-lenderRegulated by NBFIRA, incorporated on 22 December 2015. 16 branches and more than 155 sales agents.
What it does
Payroll-deducted instalment loansUnsecured, P2,000 to P500,000, averaging P38,920 over 44 months. Most borrowers are paid by the government.
How big
P455.0m of loansAbout €29.67m net at the end of 2025, after growing 65% in the year; €29.9m at June 2026 on its parent's figures.
Who owns it
Eleving Group S.A., through MauritiusA Luxembourg group rated B with a positive outlook, affirmed in December 2025. It is also this company's largest lender and its guarantor on the platform.
Platform
MintosListed as "Express Credit BW", with the notes issued by SIA Mintos Finance No. 8.
How much is lent through it
€0Read on 9 November 2026 — Mintos's own figure, not independently checked. It showed €1.3m on 13 September 2026. On the group's figures it was nil at the end of 2025 and €0.8m in June and at 30 September 2026 — the platform is a small part of its funding.
What investors are paid
8.38% on averageAs read on 13 September 2026; on 9 November 2026 Mintos showed no average rate, because nothing was outstanding. With a buyback, the loans ceded in security to the issuer, and the parent's guarantee to that issuer.
The platform's own score
7.8 of 10Mintos, updated 9 October 2026, read on 9 November 2026 — a platform figure. Its parts: loans performing 7.4, collections 7.8, buyback 9.3, structure 5.7. It was 7.9 in September. Its published update history is in two names — the last entry under "ExpressCredit BW" is from December 2023, and there are 2025 entries under "Eleving Group (BW)". We could not establish from the platform whether that is this listing renamed.
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