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ESTO LV
Letland
ESTO LV, AS sells instalment credit in Latvian shops, as the Latvian arm of the Estonian ESTO group. Mintos investors lend it money and earn interest. Our memo scores it 39 out of 100, a D, and puts the chance it fails to pay within a year at about 13%.
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AILender memo · ESTO LV · Latvia
ESTO LV: how likely is it to fail to pay its lenders?
ESTO LV, AS sells instalment credit at the till — the Latvian arm of the Estonian ESTO group, selling the same product through Latvian shops. Seven people work there. It is wholly owned by ESTO Holdings OÜ and funded almost entirely by its parent. Mintos lists it as "ESTO (LV)". This memo asks one question: what is the chance it fails to pay its lenders back in the next 12 months, and why.
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. This memo was prepared with the help of AI from publicly available documents. It is general information for education only — not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything, and it does not take account of your circumstances. Figures may contain errors; check them against the original documents. Investing through P2P platforms can result in the loss of all money invested.
Our score
39/ 100
D Weak
ABCDE
about 13%chance it fails to pay in the next 12 months
1 in 7the same number, put the other way round
Where that sits on our scale
On our scale a D grade carries a portfolio limit of 2%. Latvia is a B country and would allow 25%, so it is this company's own 2% that binds, and it sits inside whatever room ESTO as a group is given. These caps are a convention of our scale, applied to every lender we cover. They are not advice about your money.
Recapitalised in December, still losing money, and a guarantor of its parent's bond
For two years this company owed more than it owned. Equity was minus €1.67m at the end of 2023 and minus €3.05m at the end of 2024. It was positive at the end of 2025 — plus €1.53m — only because ESTO Holdings put about €5.4m of new share capital in, registered on 22 December 2025. Nothing commits the parent to do that again.
The business itself is heading the right way. Income rose by half in 2025, from €2.6m to €4.1m, the loan book grew 86% to €12.8m before provisions, and the loss narrowed from €37.25 to €19.95 for every €100 of income. But it is still a loss, three years of them come to €2.74m, and at this pace break-even is several years away. Bad loans are the biggest cost: write-offs and provisions took €51.10 of every €100 of income in 2025. Meanwhile the company guarantees 21.5% of the group's €20m bond, and its loan book is pledged as security for the group's own borrowing, which puts other claims on its assets alongside yours.
Six findings would override the score and set the answer to at least a 25% chance of failing — lending more than half the owners' money to people or companies connected to it, an auditor who will not sign off cleanly, an audit report carrying a material uncertainty about the business continuing, a broken financial promise to lenders, late payments to investors, or owners taking out more than the business earned two years running. None that we could confirm applies here. One we could not check: the file Mintos publishes as the audited 2025 accounts stops one page before the auditor's report its own contents page lists, so we have not read the auditor's opinion. The accounts are prepared on the basis that the business continues, and we found no sign of a going-concern doubt; if the auditor had raised one, the answer would be an E with at least a 25% chance of failing. Two things would pull the answer the other way, a guarantee from a stronger owner or a credit rating. Neither applies here.
💶Financial strengthE
It has lost money in every year we can see — €0.81m in 2025 on €4.1m of income. The cushion it had at the end of 2025 was put there by the parent in the last days of that year.
📉Loan bookD
The 2025 notes show the cost: write-offs and provisions of €2.09m, about 15% of the average loan book after €0.59m from selling loan portfolios. Provisions fell from 7.6% to 6.1% of loans while the book grew 86%. Arrears are still not published.
🇱🇻Country: LatviaB
The euro, so no currency risk. Strong courts. A cap on the cost of credit unchanged since 2019. The government fell in May 2026 and an election was due in October.
⚖️Group and other risksE
Negative equity for two years until it was recapitalised, €189,000 of cash, €11.0m owed to the group, its loans pledged for the group's borrowing, and a guarantee over part of the group's bond.
Equity was negative until December 2025. Minus €1.67m at the end of 2023 and minus €3.05m at the end of 2024 — the company owed more than everything it owned, for two years running. It became positive, at plus €1.53m, only when ESTO Holdings registered about €5.4m of new share capital on 22 December 2025. That was a decision, not an obligation, and nothing commits the parent to repeat it. The 2025 report prints equity in brackets, as if negative, but its own lines add up to plus €1,532,750 and the balance sheet only balances with that figure.
Its loan book secures the group's borrowing. The 2025 notes list five pledges of this company's receivables, given between June 2024 and November 2025 for ESTO Holdings, to Multitude Bank, Citadele and two Triniti collateral agents, with maximum secured amounts from €6.6m to €110m. If the group fails, those lenders can claim the very loans that are meant to repay you.
It guarantees part of the group's bond. ESTO LV carries 21.5% of the guarantee on ESTO Holdings' €20m bond, which pays 9.5% and matures in June 2029. If the group fails, that guarantee is a claim on this company's assets standing alongside yours.
De volledige analyse behandelt de lener of het bedrijf, de zekerheid, de kasstroom, de risico's en een oordeel. Log in om deze te lezen.
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