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Primero Finance
Estland
Primero Finance OÜ is Eleving Group's Estonian car lender. Mintos investors lend it money and earn interest. Our memo scores it 54 out of 100, a C, and puts the chance it fails to pay within a year at about 5% on its own, or about 3% with its parent's guarantee.
Eckdaten
- Durchschnittszins
- 14.38%
- Durchschnitt, nicht garantiert
- Kreditportfolio
- €37,094
- Start ab
- €50
Kapitalverlustrisiko. Der Zins ist vereinbart, nicht garantiert: Fällt ein Kreditnehmer aus, können Sie Ihr Geld teilweise oder vollständig verlieren.
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KI-Analyse
KILender memo · Primero Finance · Estonia
Primero Finance: how likely is it to fail to pay its lenders?
Primero Finance OÜ is Eleving Group's Estonian lender — car leases and car loans through more than 100 dealers, plus unsecured consumer loans since 2025, up to €20,000 over 7 years, run from one Tallinn office by 19 people. Mintos investors lend to it through a Mintos company. This memo asks one question: what is the chance it fails to pay its lenders back in the next 12 months, and why. It replaces our memo of 13 September 2026, which had only the 2024 audited accounts and management figures for December 2025. The 2025 audited accounts are now filed, and they change the answer.
Update, 9 November 2026In October 2026 Eleving Group repaid most of the money its companies had borrowed on Mintos, using a new €200 million bond (9%, due 2032). On 9 November 2026 Mintos showed €37,094 lent to Primero by its investors (13 September: €3.9 million). The company is still listed as active on Mintos, but there is little or nothing to invest in now. Eleving uses Mintos as a flexible source of money and has come back before. This memo describes the risk if its notes return or if you still hold some.
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. This memo was prepared with the help of AI from publicly available documents. It is general information for education only — not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything, and it does not take account of your circumstances. Figures may contain errors; check them against the original documents. Investing through P2P platforms can result in the loss of all money invested.
Our score
54/ 100
C Watch
ABCDE
about 5%chance it fails to pay in the next 12 months, on its own — about 1 in 20
about 3.0%with Eleving Group's guarantee to the Mintos issuer — about 1 in 33
Where those sit on our scale
On its own a C carries a portfolio limit of 6%. With the guarantee the odds become Eleving's, and the limit that matches those odds is 12%, counted inside the 12% we allow for all Eleving companies together. The grade, C, is the company's own; the second number applies to a Mintos note the guarantee covers. Estonia is a B country on our scale and would allow 25%, which does not bind. These caps are a convention of our scale, applied to every lender we cover. They are not advice about your money.
A pipe for the group's money — and the car lender inside it loses money
The six questions come to 54, a C: about 1 in 20 on its own. At the end of 2025 Primero had lent €197.6m to eight other Eleving companies — 12.1 times its own €16.3m of owners' money, where our line is half. Most of it was repaid by April 2026, and we cannot be sure it is still over the line today, so it is not a finding that overrides the score; it is the main warning signal below.
The parent improves the number. Mintos's base prospectus of 30 March 2026 says Eleving Group S.A. "guarantees the Lending Company's obligations towards the Issuer" — SIA Mintos Finance No. 1, the Mintos company that issues the notes — and adds in the same passage that the guarantor "is not guaranteeing Mintos or the Issuer's obligations towards the Investors". Eleving is rated B by Fitch, outlook positive, so under our method its rating sets the odds for the notes: about 1 in 33, better than the company's own 1 in 20.
Look at where the income comes from and the business is not what its name suggests. Of every €100 of income in 2025, €77.20 was interest handed straight back to Eleving Group S.A. and €1.73 was left over — against €7.70 a year earlier. Income nearly doubled, from €12.30m to €22.87m, almost entirely because Primero borrowed more of Eleving's money and lent it on inside the group. Profit fell 58%, to €394,816.
Split it in two and the car lender is loss-making. Lending to Estonian car buyers earned €4.26m and lost €0.56m in 2025 after costs, bad debts and interest — against €0.12m lost in 2024. The margin on passing the group's money through earned €0.95m and paid for it. Since the group lending was mostly unwound after the year end, what is left is the business that loses money.
Why the group lending is no longer a veto. The audited report says that by 30 April 2026 the loans to group companies had fallen by €186.6m and the borrowing from the group by €186.3m. What is left is, on our own arithmetic, about €9.0m of principal — 55% of year-end owners' money, 5 points above the 50% line; counted with the interest accrued at the year end it is about €11.0m, or 67%; net of what Primero owes the group it is about 26%. That is our arithmetic against year-end equity, six months old, with the trend steeply down, so we cannot be sure it is still above half today. We apply a veto only when we are sure. In plain words: We could not confirm how much Primero still lends to other Eleving companies; after most of it was repaid in early 2026 it was, on our arithmetic, still a little over half of its own money, and if that is still so, a large part of its cushion depends on its sister companies paying it back.
Six things would stop us scoring at all and send the answer straight to E — a default, a missed payment to a platform, a regulator pulling a licence, an auditor doubting the company can continue, a broken promise to a lender, or accounts we cannot rely on. None applies on what we can confirm today. Two things would pull the answer the other way, a guarantee from a stronger owner or a credit rating. One of them does apply, and it is why this memo gives a second number.
💶Financial strengthD
Profit down 58% to €394,816. The car business lost €0.56m; owners' money is 7.7% of assets, from 14.1%.
📉Loan bookC
Loans over sixty days late fell from 10.1% to 8.4%; money set aside is 150% of the defaulted loans.
🇪🇪Country: EstoniaB
Grade B (4.10 out of 5). The euro, courts near the top of the world, and a cost ceiling Primero sits well inside.
⚖️Group and other risksB
A clean BDO opinion — but it is one of 13 guarantors of Eleving's bonds, and has pledged almost everything it owns for them.
€197.6m lent inside its own group at the end of 2025, against €16.3m of owners' money — most of it repaid since.At 31 December 2025 eight Eleving companies owed Primero €197.6m — 1,209% of its equity, up from €100.5m a year earlier, at rates from 8.65% to 18%. Our method overrides the score when connected lending passes half the cushion and we are sure it still does. Netting what Primero owes the group back against it leaves €4.2m, or 26% of equity — but the accounts disclose no right to set one against the other, and in an insolvency a right of set-off has to exist and be written down before it can be relied on. By 30 April 2026 the loans had fallen by €186.6m. The loans to group companies carry no provision at all: the accounts record "no expected credit loss" against them. We could not confirm how much Primero still lends to other Eleving companies; after most of it was repaid in early 2026 it was, on our arithmetic, still a little over half of its own money, and if that is still so, a large part of its cushion depends on its sister companies paying it back.
It guarantees its parent's bonds, and has pledged almost everything it owns for them.Primero is one of 13 joint guarantors of Eleving Group's 9%.5% bonds due October 2030 — €270.0m outstanding at the end of 2025, of €275m issued — and has pledged its shares, its loans, its trademarks and its bank accounts to the bond trustee. Its own accounts put the fair value of that guarantee at nil. We found no cap on it. Against €16.3m of owners' money, that is harmless while Eleving pays and ruinous if it does not — which is the same risk the second number on this page already prices.
Two figures in the Mintos prospectus contradict the table printed beside them.The prospectus text says car loans more than ninety days late are "below 10%", while its own table in the same document shows 13.45% at the end of 2025, up from 8.9% a year earlier. It says the current share of car loans is "above 77%", while the table shows 74.27%. We report both and prefer the tables, which are the company's own quarterly figures. Leases more than sixty days late are 11.5%, from 12.4%.
Why this number matters
Every investment carries risk, and risk is not really a letter or a mark out of ten. It is two plain questions: how likely is it that this company fails, and how much of your money would you lose if it did. Put those together and you can see whether the reward is worth it.
For Primero: Mintos showed an average investor rate of 14.38% a year on 9 November 2026, on only about €37,000 outstanding. On the company's own numbers the chance of it failing in the next twelve months is about 5%, 1 in 20. If about 70% of the money is gone when a lender like this fails, the risk costs about 3.5% a year, and about 10.9% is left once the risk is paid for. With the parent's guarantee the odds are about 3.0%, 1 in 33: the risk costs about 2.1% a year and about 12.3% is left. Both are our estimates from public documents, not promises, and the 70% is our working assumption, not a measured figure. A rate read on so small an amount says little about what new notes would pay.
Three things worth holding on to
1. Two numbers, one company
The first number is Primero's own, from its own accounts. The guarantee is a separate question: it covers what Primero owes the Mintos issuer, and it is why there are two numbers rather than one.
2. The business you are told about is not the business the money is in
In 2025 roughly four euros in every five of Primero's income came from lending inside its own group, not from Estonian car buyers. A memo that only described the car business would describe a fifth of the company.
3. Well capitalised and thin are both true here
Owners' money of €16.3m is larger than the whole €14.5m customer book, and no dividend has ever been paid. Measured against the balance sheet it funds, the same €16.3m is 7.7%.
What it is
A licensed Estonian creditorLicence 4.1-1/11 from the Estonian supervisor, granted 8 February 2016 when the company was called mogo OÜ. Estonia only, one Tallinn office, 19 staff.
What it sells
Car leases and car loansThrough more than 100 dealers and online, plus unsecured consumer loans since 2025 — up to €20,000 over as long as 7 years.
How big
€17.02m of customer loansGross, at the end of 2025, up 19% in the year. And €197.6m lent to other Eleving companies on top of that.
Who owns it
AS mogo, Latvia, 100%Part of Eleving Group S.A. of Luxembourg, rated B by Fitch with a positive outlook. Primero was sold inside the group, from AS Eleving Stella to AS mogo, on 1 October 2024.
Platform
Mintos, as "Eleving Group EE (Primero Finance OÜ)"The notes are issued by SIA Mintos Finance No. 1. You do not lend to Primero directly.
How much is actually lent
About €37,000Outstanding on 9 November 2026 on the platform's own figure, down from €3.9m on 13 September 2026 — close to nothing. Mintos gives no reason and we do not guess one. Primero's accounts show €2.2m owed to platform investors at the end of 2025, and Eleving's half-year report shows €3.6m of Mintos funding for Estonia at 30 June 2026.
Rate and protection
14.38%, buyback plus a parent guaranteeThe average investor rate shown on 9 November 2026 (9.84% on 13 September), on a very small amount. The underlying loans are pledged to the Mintos issuer, and Eleving Group guarantees Primero's obligations to that issuer — not to investors.
The platform's own score
Mintos Risk Score 9.2Updated by Mintos on 9 October 2026 and read on 9 November 2026 (9.1 before): loans performing 10.0, collections 10.0, buyback 9.3, structure 4.0. That is Mintos's number, not ours, and we have not checked how it is built.
Die vollständige Analyse behandelt den Kreditnehmer bzw. das Unternehmen, die Sicherheit, den Cashflow, die Risiken und ein Fazit. Melden Sie sich an, um sie zu lesen.
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