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Sto cercando… Qualcosa è andato storto. Riprova. {n} domande rimaste oggi
Kazakistan
Capitale a rischio. Il tasso è concordato, non garantito: se un debitore è inadempiente puoi perdere una parte o la totalità del tuo denaro.
La nostra IA assegna a questo progetto 25 su 100: Basso. Come funziona il punteggio IA
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JSC Microfinance Organization OnlineKazFinance lends money online to small businesses and people in Kazakhstan under the brand Solva. Investors reach it through Mintos, where it is listed as IDF (OnlineKazFinance) and is the platform's largest Kazakh exposure. This memo asks one question: what is the chance that OnlineKazFinance fails to pay the people who lend to it in the next 12 months, and why.
Start with what is not our judgement. The three findings below are quotations from the company's own 2025 accounts and from PwC's report on them, signed 24 June 2026. We did not infer them, and the company does not dispute them — it published them.
One: the auditor doubts the company can continue. PwC's report states that "a material uncertainty exists that may cast significant doubt on the Company's ability to continue as a going concern". The opinion itself is unmodified — PwC signed the accounts as a fair presentation — but that paragraph is one of the findings our method treats as overriding any score.
Two: its lenders can call their money. Covenants on capital adequacy, return on assets and loans more than 30 days late were breached, and KZT 53.2bn of borrowings is therefore shown in the accounts as repayable on demand. Mintos investors' KZT 24.2bn is inside that figure. Waivers have been given, and they expire between June and December 2026 — one of them "subject to net profit for 2026".
Three: a large part of the cushion is owed back by sister companies. Balances with related parties were KZT 9.98bn against owners' money of KZT 16.7bn — 60%, where our method overrides the score above 50%. KZT 5.3bn of it went in 2025 to FintechFinance, the Moneyman lender that Mintos has since suspended.
And the business behind those findings lost half its equity in a year. Of every €100 of income in 2025, interest took €49.76 and bad debts €44.18; the loss was €−21.12 of every €100, or KZT 12.0bn — about €20m. On the numbers alone the score is 25, which is an E before any veto is applied — that score on its own gives about 23.0%. The vetoes put a floor of 25% under the answer, and we publish the floor, because it is the higher of the two and because a floor is the honest shape for a company whose next year depends on what individual lenders decide to do.
Four things decide the score, and three of the four are at the bottom of the scale:
Lost KZT 12.0bn in 2025, about half the owners' money. Interest was covered 0.59 times — less than once.
Loans 30 or more days late doubled to 24.5% of the book in 2025; 27.7% of the book is credit-impaired.
A 46% cost cap, a 10% bad-loan cap it already sits at, and a regulator that questioned its provisions.
Going-concern doubt, callable debt, KZT 5.3bn lent at 8% to a sister company Mintos has suspended.
Every investment carries risk, and risk is not really a letter or a mark out of ten. It is two plain questions: how likely is it that this company cannot pay, and what would you get back if it could not. This memo answers the first. On the second, the honest answer here is that we do not know: the two guarantees in the prospectus run to the Mintos company and not to investors, and the lenders who can call their loans on demand would be in the queue first.
At least a 1 in 4 chance of failing to pay in a year is not a prediction that it will happen. It is the floor our method puts under the odds once findings like these appear, and it is deliberately a floor rather than a best guess.
Notes issued by a Mintos company, in euro, tenge or roubles, which lends the money on to OnlineKazFinance.
KZT 16.7bn of owners' money — 11.0% of what the company owns, and 60% of it owed back by sister companies.
One lender calling its loan when a waiver expires. KZT 53.2bn is already repayable on demand.
Licence 02.21.0004.M from the Kazakh regulator since 1 March 2021; a joint-stock company since December 2023.
The Solva brand. It was the third-largest Kazakh microlender by assets in 2025.
73% of the 2025 book is to small businesses, the rest to individuals. Car-secured lending has only just started.
At 31 December 2025, audited — about €271m — with KZT 35.2bn set aside against it.
The founders' holding-company shares are reported to have passed to AG Holding Ltd. Not seen in a primary document.
Notes issued by SIA Mintos Finance No. 27, in euro, tenge and roubles.
On 9 November 2026 — a platform figure, not independently verified. The platform's largest Kazakh exposure.
The average rate on its Mintos notes on 9 November 2026 — a platform figure.
Of the €72.2m on the platform's performance tab on 13 September 2026, with €1.67m of payments pending 12 days on average.
Mintos, 9 October 2026 (5.3 on 9 July 2026). Three of its subscores were cut in April 2026, and its buyback-strength part again in October, “due to overdue payments and worse financial performance” — platform figures.
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