Mintos • Mogo IFN
P2P-marktplaats
Mogo IFN
A licensed Romanian lender, €63m book, now mostly unsecured instalment loans, part of Eleving
Key project data
Terugkoopgarantie
Yes
Gemiddeld tarief
10,13
Uitstaande investeringen
6400000 MEUR
Would AI invest?
52/100
1
100
Door AI gegenereerd overzicht
AI project overview
Condensed summary based on project data
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<title>ECFA / Kredo (Albania) — lender memo | Crowdinform</title>
<meta name="description" content="How likely is ECFA, the Albanian lender Mintos investors know as Kredo, to fail to pay its lenders in the next 12 months? Plain-language memo, 21 September 2026.">
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<article class="ci-memo" id="ecfa-memo">
<header class="hero">
<div class="kicker">Lender memo · ECFA (Kredo) · Albania</div>
<h1>ECFA: how likely is it to fail to pay its lenders?</h1>
<p class="muted">ECFA Sh.A. makes small consumer loans in Albania — typically €960 over 21 months. Mintos investors know it as Kredo, and it is owned by Eleving Group. It was called Kredo Finance until December 2024. This memo asks one question: what is the chance it fails to pay its lenders back in the next 12 months, and why.</p>
<div class="meta">
<span class="chip">Written 21 September 2026</span>
<span class="chip">Based on its 2021, 2023 and 2024 accounts audited by Grant Thornton, plus an unaudited 2025 summary</span>
<span class="chip">Checked line by line by a separate reviewer</span>
</div>
</header>
<div class="nfa" role="note"><strong>THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.</strong> This memo was prepared with the help of AI from publicly available documents. It is general information for education only — not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything, and it does not take account of your circumstances. Figures may contain errors; check them against the original documents. Investing through P2P platforms can result in the loss of all money invested.</div>
<!-- ANSWER -->
<div class="answer" aria-labelledby="ans-h">
<div class="score">
<div class="kicker">Our score</div>
<div class="big tabnum"><b>64</b><span>/ 100</span></div>
<span class="grade"><i>C</i> Watch</span>
<div>
<div class="scale" aria-hidden="true"><div style="background:var(--gA)"></div><div style="background:var(--gB)"></div><div class="on" style="background:var(--gC)"></div><div style="background:var(--gD)"></div><div style="background:var(--gE)"></div></div>
<div class="scale-l"><span>A</span><span>B</span><span>C</span><span>D</span><span>E</span></div>
</div>
<div class="odds">
<div class="odd main"><b class="tabnum">3%</b><span>chance it fails to pay in the next 12 months, counting its parent’s guarantee</span></div>
<div class="odd"><b class="tabnum">3.1%</b><span>judging the company on its own</span></div>
</div>
<div class="bands" aria-label="Where 3% sits on our scale of failure chances">
<div class="kicker" style="font-size:.7rem">Where that sits on our scale</div>
<div class="bandbar"><span>0–2%</span><span class="on">2–5%</span><span>5–10%</span><span>10–20%</span><span>20%+</span></div>
</div>
<div class="limit"><b>Our framework caps this lender at 12% of a portfolio</b> with the parent’s guarantee, or 6% judging it alone. That uses the whole 12% we allow for the Eleving group together, and sits inside Albania’s country limit of 15%. These caps are a convention of our scale, applied to every lender we cover. They are not advice about your money.</div>
</div>
<div>
<h2 id="ans-h">A genuinely profitable lender, one point short of a B — held back by how much the owners take out</h2>
<p class="muted" style="margin:0 0 4px">This is a solidly profitable lender. It makes real money from lending, keeps a thick cushion, and its parent, Eleving Group, is rated B by Fitch (affirmed December 2025) and guarantees its obligations to the Mintos company that issues the notes. The weak point is that the owners take out almost everything it earns. Each figure below shows the odds as if that were the only risk the company faced.</p>
<div class="subs">
<div class="sub"><div class="top">💶 Earnings and safety cushion <em style="background:var(--gB)">B</em></div><b class="tabnum">about 2%</b><p>It kept €19.83 of every €100 of income in 2025, down from €33.23 — still a good year for a lender.</p></div>
<div class="sub"><div class="top">📉 Are its loans repaid? <em style="background:var(--gC)">C</em></div><b class="tabnum">about 4%</b><p>About a seventh of the book by value is in default — high, but stable, and more than covered by money set aside.</p></div>
<div class="sub"><div class="top">🇦🇱 How risky is Albania? <em style="background:var(--gC)">C</em></div><b class="tabnum">about 4%</b><p>A sound economy, but a regulator cutting the legal price cap on exactly this product, every six months.</p></div>
<div class="sub"><div class="top">⚖️ Anything else? <em style="background:var(--gD)">D</em></div><b class="tabnum">about 8%</b><p>The owners take out nearly all the profit, and the company guarantees its parent’s bonds.</p></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="flags">
<div class="flag ok"><strong>Good news: it earns its money the ordinary way.</strong>Income is almost entirely interest and fees on small consumer loans, and in each of the last three years the company kept between €19.83 and €33.23 of every €100 of it. Interest on its own borrowing was covered about three times over in 2025. The owners’ money is 30.2% of everything the company owns, against an Albanian legal minimum of 10%. Grant Thornton signed the 2021, 2023 and 2024 accounts without qualification. The 2025 figures here are unaudited.</div>
<div class="flag wt"><strong>Careful: the owners take out almost everything, and one year they took out more.</strong>In 2024 they took 1.66bn lek — 147% of that year’s profit, and every lek of profit the company had kept from earlier years. Across 2023 to 2025 they took 113% of what it earned. Our automatic veto needs two years running above 100%, and only 2024 is above, so it does not apply. But 2025 looks like about 93%, which is only seven points below 100% — and we worked that figure out ourselves, from the change in retained profit in the unaudited one-page summary, so a difference of about €0.45m would take it above 100%. If the audited 2025 accounts show a payout above profit, 2024 and 2025 become two years running and the veto would apply on its own accounts.</div>
</div>
<!-- WHY IT MATTERS -->
<div class="why">
<h2>Why this number matters</h2>
<p class="wlead">Every investment carries risk, and risk is not really a letter or a mark out of ten. It is two plain questions: <b>how likely is it that this company fails</b>, and <b>how much of your money would you lose if it did</b>. Put those together and you can see whether the reward is worth it.</p>
<div class="wbox">
<p style="margin:0"><b>For ECFA:</b> about a <b>3% chance</b> of failing in the next 12 months. If we assume about 30% of the money comes back in that case, the risk costs roughly <b>2.1% a year</b> — against the <b>8.59%</b> the loans pay. That leaves about <b>6.5%</b> as the reward for taking the risk.</p>
</div>
<details class="wmore">
<summary>Show how this works</summary>
<div class="wgrid">
<div class="wcard"><h3>1. The rate is a promise, not a result</h3><p>An advertised 8.59% is what you are promised if everything goes well. What you keep is that rate minus what failures cost you. So the rate on its own tells you very little — and the highest rates on a platform are usually high for a reason.</p></div>
<div class="wcard"><h3>2. Put a price on the risk</h3><p><b>Risk cost = chance of failing × share of your money you would not get back.</b> Nobody knows the second number in advance. How much comes back has varied widely from case to case. We use 30% back, 70% lost, as our own working assumption so that memos can be compared with each other — it is not a measured figure, and the answer moves a lot if you choose differently.</p></div>
<div class="wcard"><h3>3. Compare like for like</h3><p>Take two imaginary lenders. One pays 14% but has a 17% chance of failing within the year: the risk costs about 11.9% a year, leaving roughly 2%. The other pays 9% with a 2.5% chance: the risk costs about 1.8%, leaving about 7%. The bigger number on the screen can easily be the worse one.</p></div>
</div>
<div class="sum">
<b>ECFA, worked through</b>
<div class="tscroll"><table>
<thead><tr><th> </th><th>With guarantee</th><th>Alone</th></tr></thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td>Chance of failing in a year</td><td>3.0%</td><td>3.1%</td></tr>
<tr><td>Loss if it fails (70%)</td><td>× 0.7</td><td>× 0.7</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Risk cost a year</b></td><td><b>2.1%</b></td><td><b>2.2%</b></td></tr>
<tr><td>Rate offered on Mintos</td><td>8.59%</td><td>8.59%</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Left after the risk cost</b></td><td><b>about 6.5%</b></td><td><b>about 6.4%</b></td></tr>
</tbody>
</table></div>
<p style="margin:8px 0 0">Three things this arithmetic leaves out. The guarantee behind the 3.0% column is given to the Mintos company, not to you, so it reaches you only through that chain (section 5). The guarantee barely moves the number here anyway — the company scores almost as well on its own. And a real failure does not arrive as a yearly cost; it arrives all at once, which is why how much you put in one place matters as much as the rate.</p>
<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font-size:.85rem;color:var(--ink-3)">The 8.59% is Mintos’s average rate across its outstanding ECFA notes.</p>
</div>
<p class="fine"><b>Where our number comes from:</b> we score six questions out of five, weight them into a score out of 100, and convert that score into a chance of failure using the long-run default rates that S&P publishes for companies of each credit quality. Small lenders fail more often than rated companies, so we treat every figure as a floor rather than a best guess. It is our own estimate from public documents — not a credit rating, not a market price, and not a promise about what will happen.</p>
</details>
</div>
<!-- GLANCE -->
<div class="band">The company at a glance</div>
<div class="glance">
<div class="tile"><div class="k">What it is</div><b>A licensed microcredit lender</b><p>Bank of Albania licence since November 2017. 38 branches plus online and 222 staff at the end of 2024.</p></div>
<div class="tile"><div class="k">What it lends</div><b>€30 to €6,000</b><p>Average €960 over 21 months — small, short and expensive, which is what the loss rates reflect.</p></div>
<div class="tile"><div class="k">How much it has lent</div><b>€37.7m</b><p>End of 2025, after money set aside for bad debts, down 7.5% in lek over the year. Before that deduction the book was €42.7m.</p></div>
<div class="tile"><div class="k">Who owns it</div><b>Eleving Group</b><p>Through a Latvian holding company, which holds all the voting shares; staff hold 4.63% without votes. The parent is rated B by Fitch.</p></div>
</div>
<div class="band">Where an investor can lend to it</div>
<div class="glance">
<div class="tile"><div class="k">Platform</div><b>Mintos</b><p>Listed there as "Eleving Group AL (Kredo)".</p></div>
<div class="tile"><div class="k">Borrowed from investors</div><b class="tabnum">€11.5m</b><p>13 September 2026 — Mintos’s own figure, about 42% of everything it had borrowed at the end of 2025.</p></div>
<div class="tile"><div class="k">Average rate</div><b class="tabnum">8.59%</b><p>13 September 2026 — Mintos’s own figure.</p></div>
<div class="tile"><div class="k">Protection offered</div><b>Buyback, plus the parent’s guarantee</b><p>Buyback at 60 days late; Eleving Group guarantees ECFA to the Mintos company, and the underlying loans are pledged to it.</p></div>
<div class="tile"><div class="k">Mintos Risk Score</div><b class="tabnum">7.8</b><p>Updated 9 July 2026 — Mintos’s own score, not ours. We found no downgrade since 2023.</p></div>
</div>
<p class="small">Amounts are in Albanian lek, converted at the year-end rates used in the accounts (103.88 for 2023, 98.15 for 2024) and, for 2025, at the Mintos prospectus rate of 96.67 lek per euro. The European Central Bank publishes no lek reference rate. Platform figures are as published by Mintos and have not been independently verified.</p>
<!-- 1 -->
<section aria-labelledby="s1">
<div class="sec-head"><h2 id="s1">1 · Does it earn enough?</h2><span class="odds-chip" style="background:var(--gB)">about 2% · B</span></div>
<p class="lead">Still very profitable — but profit halved in 2025, and the legal price cap keeps falling.</p>
<p>This is the chart that matters most for ECFA. In 2023 and 2024 it kept €30.16 and €33.23 of every €100 of income after everything, including bad debts. That is a strong result for a consumer lender. In 2025 it kept €19.83 — still a good year for a lender, but the direction is what matters.</p>
<div class="grid2">
<figure>
<figcaption>Where every €100 of income went<span>2023 and 2024 from audited accounts. 2025 is a one-page management summary, not audited.</span></figcaption>
<div class="hb" role="img" aria-label="Where every 100 euros of income went in 2023, 2024 and 2025."><div class="hb-row"><div class="hb-l">2023, audited</div><div class="hb-track"><span class="sg" style="width:22.77%;background:#0f7ea0" data-tip="2023, audited · Running the business: €24.6 of every €100" tabindex="0" role="button" aria-label="2023, audited · Running the business: €24.6 of every €100"><em>25</em></span><span class="sg" style="width:27.25%;background:#e0773c" data-tip="2023, audited · Borrowers who never paid: €29.4 of every €100" tabindex="0" role="button" aria-label="2023, audited · Borrowers who never paid: €29.4 of every €100"><em>29</em></span><span class="sg sm" style="width:9.02%;background:#29a9d0" data-tip="2023, audited · Interest to its own lenders: €9.7 of every €100" tabindex="0" role="button" aria-label="2023, audited · Interest to its own lenders: €9.7 of every €100"><em>10</em></span><span class="sg sm" style="width:5.64%;background:#8a6fbf" data-tip="2023, audited · Tax and currency losses: €6.1 of every €100" tabindex="0" role="button" aria-label="2023, audited · Tax and currency losses: €6.1 of every €100"></span><span class="sg" style="width:27.93%;background:#2e8b57" data-tip="2023, audited · Left over (profit): €30.2 of every €100" tabindex="0" role="button" aria-label="2023, audited · Left over (profit): €30.2 of every €100"><em>30</em></span><span class="hb-ref" style="left:92.59%"></span></div></div><div class="hb-row"><div class="hb-l">2024, audited</div><div class="hb-track"><span class="sg" style="width:23.89%;background:#0f7ea0" data-tip="2024, audited · Running the business: €25.8 of every €100" tabindex="0" role="button" aria-label="2024, audited · Running the business: €25.8 of every €100"><em>26</em></span><span class="sg" style="width:23.66%;background:#e0773c" data-tip="2024, audited · Borrowers who never paid: €25.6 of every €100" tabindex="0" role="button" aria-label="2024, audited · Borrowers who never paid: €25.6 of every €100"><em>26</em></span><span class="sg sm" style="width:7.46%;background:#29a9d0" data-tip="2024, audited · Interest to its own lenders: €8.1 of every €100" tabindex="0" role="button" aria-label="2024, audited · Interest to its own lenders: €8.1 of every €100"><em>8</em></span><span class="sg sm" style="width:6.81%;background:#8a6fbf" data-tip="2024, audited · Tax and currency losses: €7.3 of every €100" tabindex="0" role="button" aria-label="2024, audited · Tax and currency losses: €7.3 of every €100"></span><span class="sg" style="width:30.77%;background:#2e8b57" data-tip="2024, audited · Left over (profit): €33.2 of every €100" tabindex="0" role="button" aria-label="2024, audited · Left over (profit): €33.2 of every €100"><em>33</em></span><span class="hb-ref" style="left:92.59%"></span></div></div><div class="hb-row"><div class="hb-l">2025, unaudited<span class="warn-lbl">from a one-page summary, not audited accounts</span></div><div class="hb-track"><span class="sg" style="width:39.20%;background:#0f7ea0" data-tip="2025, unaudited · Running the business: €42.3 of every €100" tabindex="0" role="button" aria-label="2025, unaudited · Running the business: €42.3 of every €100"><em>42</em></span><span class="sg" style="width:21.37%;background:#e0773c" data-tip="2025, unaudited · Borrowers who never paid: €23.1 of every €100" tabindex="0" role="button" aria-label="2025, unaudited · Borrowers who never paid: €23.1 of every €100"><em>23</em></span><span class="sg sm" style="width:10.58%;background:#29a9d0" data-tip="2025, unaudited · Interest to its own lenders: €11.4 of every €100" tabindex="0" role="button" aria-label="2025, unaudited · Interest to its own lenders: €11.4 of every €100"><em>11</em></span><span class="sg sm" style="width:3.07%;background:#8a6fbf" data-tip="2025, unaudited · Tax and currency losses: €3.3 of every €100" tabindex="0" role="button" aria-label="2025, unaudited · Tax and currency losses: €3.3 of every €100"></span><span class="sg" style="width:18.36%;background:#2e8b57" data-tip="2025, unaudited · Left over (profit): €19.8 of every €100" tabindex="0" role="button" aria-label="2025, unaudited · Left over (profit): €19.8 of every €100"><em>20</em></span><span class="hb-ref" style="left:92.59%"></span></div></div><div class="hb-axis"><span style="left:92.59%">€100 of income</span></div></div>
<ul class="legend"><li><i style="background:#0f7ea0"></i>Running the business</li><li><i style="background:#e0773c"></i>Borrowers who never paid</li><li><i style="background:#29a9d0"></i>Interest to its own lenders</li><li><i style="background:#8a6fbf"></i>Tax and currency losses</li><li><i style="background:#2e8b57"></i>Left over (profit)</li></ul>
<p class="tip-note">Hover or tap any bar to see what it is.</p>
<details class="tbl"><summary>Show the same figures as a table</summary><div class="tscroll"><table><thead><tr><th>Per €100 of income</th><th>2023, audited</th><th>2024, audited</th><th>2025, unaudited</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Running the business</td><td>24.6</td><td>25.8</td><td>42.3</td></tr><tr><td>Borrowers who never paid</td><td>29.4</td><td>25.6</td><td>23.1</td></tr><tr><td>Interest to its own lenders</td><td>9.7</td><td>8.1</td><td>11.4</td></tr><tr><td>Tax and currency losses</td><td>6.1</td><td>7.3</td><td>3.3</td></tr><tr><td>Left over (profit)</td><td>30.2</td><td>33.2</td><td>19.8</td></tr></tbody></table></div></details>
</figure>
<figure>
<figcaption>The loan book, by how late it is<span>At the end of each audited year. More than 90 days late is the company’s definition of default.</span></figcaption>
<div class="hb" role="img" aria-label="Loan book by days late at the end of 2023 and 2024."><div class="hb-row"><div class="hb-l">31 Dec 2023</div><div class="hb-track"><span class="sg dk" style="width:83.57%;background:#b9d7df" data-tip="31 Dec 2023 · Up to 30 days late: 83.6%" tabindex="0" role="button" aria-label="31 Dec 2023 · Up to 30 days late: 83.6%"><em>83.6%</em></span><span class="sg sm" style="width:3.35%;background:#d9a21b" data-tip="31 Dec 2023 · 31 to 90 days late: 3.4%" tabindex="0" role="button" aria-label="31 Dec 2023 · 31 to 90 days late: 3.4%"></span><span class="sg sm" style="width:13.08%;background:#c0392b" data-tip="31 Dec 2023 · More than 90 days late (in default): 13.1%" tabindex="0" role="button" aria-label="31 Dec 2023 · More than 90 days late (in default): 13.1%"><em>13.1%</em></span></div></div><div class="hb-row"><div class="hb-l">31 Dec 2024</div><div class="hb-track"><span class="sg dk" style="width:82.42%;background:#b9d7df" data-tip="31 Dec 2024 · Up to 30 days late: 82.4%" tabindex="0" role="button" aria-label="31 Dec 2024 · Up to 30 days late: 82.4%"><em>82.4%</em></span><span class="sg sm" style="width:3.66%;background:#d9a21b" data-tip="31 Dec 2024 · 31 to 90 days late: 3.7%" tabindex="0" role="button" aria-label="31 Dec 2024 · 31 to 90 days late: 3.7%"></span><span class="sg sm" style="width:13.92%;background:#c0392b" data-tip="31 Dec 2024 · More than 90 days late (in default): 13.9%" tabindex="0" role="button" aria-label="31 Dec 2024 · More than 90 days late (in default): 13.9%"><em>13.9%</em></span></div></div></div>
<ul class="legend"><li><i style="background:#b9d7df"></i>Up to 30 days late</li><li><i style="background:#d9a21b"></i>31 to 90 days late</li><li><i style="background:#c0392b"></i>More than 90 days late (in default)</li></ul>
<p class="tip-note">Hover or tap any bar to see what it is.</p>
</figure>
</div>
<p>Every column reconciles exactly to the reported profit. What changed in 2025 was costs, not lending: income fell 12% in lek while running costs rose 44%, so profit fell by nearly half, to 593m lek (about €6.1m). Interest on its own borrowing was covered about three times over. The 2024 accounts show a higher figure, but they measure it on a fuller basis, so we would not read a trend into the two. Albanian press reports citing the 2025 accounts — which we have not seen — give a nearly identical profit figure.</p>
<h3 class="blk">Stress tests — what if things go wrong</h3>
<div class="events">
<div class="ev"><span class="when">The price cap, already cut</span><b>51.37% from July 2026</b><p>Down from 62.20% a year earlier and 171.41% in 2022. If income fell in step, interest cover would be about 1.55 times — still a profit.</p><span class="st wt">Margin squeeze</span></div>
<div class="ev"><span class="when">If income fell 20%</span><b>Still a small profit before tax, about €1.0m</b><p>Interest cover 1.27 times. It would take a fall of about 23% to reach break-even.</p><span class="st wt">Still a profit</span></div>
<div class="ev"><span class="when">If income fell 20% and bad debts rose half again</span><b>A loss before tax of about €2.6m</b><p>That is a fifth of the €12.8m the owners have in the business. Survivable for a year.</p><span class="st bd">A bad year</span></div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- 2 -->
<section aria-labelledby="s2">
<div class="sec-head"><h2 id="s2">2 · Are its loans being repaid?</h2><span class="odds-chip" style="background:var(--gC)">about 4% · C</span></div>
<p class="lead">A high-loss product, priced for that, well provided for, and roughly stable.</p>
<p>About a seventh of the book by value was more than 90 days late at each of the two year-ends we have — 13.1% at the end of 2023 and 13.9% at the end of 2024 — and a seventh of it was written off during 2024: 699m lek, around €7.1m, up 30% on 2023, when the figure was closer to a ninth. Those write-offs come out of the late book, not on top of it. In most kinds of lending those numbers would be alarming. For small loans of €960 over 21 months, on which the net book earns of the order of 80% a year, they are the business model, and the company sets money aside accordingly: 21.7% of the book at the end of 2024, covering 84% of the defaulted loans.</p>
<p>The trend is flat to slightly better. The cost of bad debts fell from €29.43 of every €100 of income in 2023 to €25.55 and then €23.08. The company’s own figures for Mintos show loans more than 90 days late falling from 15% to 13% during 2025 — though those are on a different basis from the audited stages, so the two are not directly comparable. We have no audited breakdown for 2025. Eleving reports the Albanian book at €39.2m at 30 June 2026, up 3% in six months.</p>
<h3 class="blk">Stress test — what if things go wrong</h3>
<div class="events">
<div class="ev"><span class="when">If bad debts doubled</span><b>Profit before tax falls to about zero</b><p>On 2025 figures. The cushion would still be there at the end of the year, but nothing would be added to it.</p><span class="st wt">Absorbed</span></div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- 3 -->
<section aria-labelledby="s3">
<div class="sec-head"><h2 id="s3">3 · The cushion, and what the owners take out</h2><span class="odds-chip" style="background:var(--gB)">30% own money</span></div>
<p class="lead">A thick cushion — which stays thick only while the owners stop at profit.</p>
<figure>
<figcaption>What the company earned, and what the owners took out<span>Billions of lek. Dark blue is profit for the year; light blue is dividends plus capital returned. 2025 is from the unaudited summary.</span></figcaption>
<div class="vb" role="img" aria-label="Profit against money paid out to the owners, in billions of lek, from 2020 to 2025. Profit: 0.27, 0.47, 0.76, 0.92, 1.13, 0.59. Paid out: nothing, nothing, 0.14, 0.78, 1.66, 0.55."><div class="vb-plot" style="grid-template-columns:repeat(6,1fr)"><span class="vb-zero" style="top:100.00%"></span><div class="vb-g"><div class="vb-bar s1" style="top:85.00%;height:15.00%"><em class="up">0.3</em></div><div class="vb-bar s2" style="top:100.00%;height:0.60%"><em class="up">0.0</em></div></div><div class="vb-g"><div class="vb-bar s1" style="top:73.89%;height:26.11%"><em class="up">0.5</em></div><div class="vb-bar s2" style="top:100.00%;height:0.60%"><em class="up">0.0</em></div></div><div class="vb-g"><div class="vb-bar s1" style="top:57.78%;height:42.22%"><em class="up">0.8</em></div><div class="vb-bar s2" style="top:92.22%;height:7.78%"><em class="up">0.1</em></div></div><div class="vb-g"><div class="vb-bar s1" style="top:48.89%;height:51.11%"><em class="up">0.9</em></div><div class="vb-bar s2" style="top:56.67%;height:43.33%"><em class="up">0.8</em></div></div><div class="vb-g"><div class="vb-bar s1" style="top:37.22%;height:62.78%"><em class="up">1.1</em></div><div class="vb-bar s2" style="top:7.78%;height:92.22%"><em class="up">1.7</em></div></div><div class="vb-g"><div class="vb-bar s1" style="top:67.22%;height:32.78%"><em class="up">0.6</em></div><div class="vb-bar s2" style="top:69.44%;height:30.56%"><em class="up">0.6</em></div></div></div><div class="vb-x" style="grid-template-columns:repeat(6,1fr)"><span>2020</span><span>2021</span><span>2022</span><span>2023</span><span>2024</span><span>2025</span></div></div>
<ul class="legend"><li><i style="background:#0f7ea0"></i>Profit for the year</li><li><i style="background:#9ccfdd"></i>Paid out to the owners</li></ul>
</figure>
<p>The two bars show what happened. Nothing was taken out in 2020 or 2021. Then 0.14bn lek in 2022 (19% of profit), 0.78bn in 2023 (85%, including a cut in share capital that handed back €4.3m), 1.66bn in 2024 — <b>147% of that year’s profit</b>, which is more than the company earned — and about 0.55bn in 2025, roughly 93%, worked out from the change in retained profit in the unaudited summary.</p>
<p>We count a capital cut as a payout, because handing money back to owners by reducing share capital does exactly what a dividend does. The accounts label the 2022 and 2023 dividends "other comprehensive income" and the capital reduction an "increase of capital"; the cash-flow statements show both as money going out.</p>
<figure>
<figcaption>What it owns, and whose money paid for it — end of 2025<span>The owners’ money is €12.8m, 30.2% of everything the company owns. It was 42% before the 2024 payout.</span></figcaption>
<div class="bs" role="img" aria-label="What the company owns and how it is funded at the end of 2025, in millions of euros."><div class="bs-col"><div class="bs-h">What it owns</div><div class="hb-track tall"><span class="sg" style="width:89.13%;background:#0f7ea0" data-tip="Loans to customers (net): €37.7m" tabindex="0" role="button" aria-label="Loans to customers (net): €37.7m"><em>37.7</em></span><span class="sg sm" style="width:3.31%;background:#29a9d0" data-tip="Cash: €1.4m" tabindex="0" role="button" aria-label="Cash: €1.4m"></span><span class="sg dk sm" style="width:3.31%;background:#9fb8bf" data-tip="Intangibles and deferred tax: €1.4m" tabindex="0" role="button" aria-label="Intangibles and deferred tax: €1.4m"></span><span class="sg dk sm" style="width:4.26%;background:#b9b2a6" data-tip="Other assets: €1.8m" tabindex="0" role="button" aria-label="Other assets: €1.8m"></span></div><ul class="bs-list"><li><i style="background:#0f7ea0"></i><span>Loans to customers (net)</span><b>€37.7m</b></li><li><i style="background:#29a9d0"></i><span>Cash</span><b>€1.4m</b></li><li><i style="background:#9fb8bf"></i><span>Intangibles and deferred tax</span><b>€1.4m</b></li><li><i style="background:#b9b2a6"></i><span>Other assets</span><b>€1.8m</b></li></ul></div><div class="bs-col"><div class="bs-h">How it is funded</div><div class="hb-track tall"><span class="sg" style="width:64.54%;background:#8a6fbf" data-tip="Loans from Mintos investors, the group and banks: €27.3m" tabindex="0" role="button" aria-label="Loans from Mintos investors, the group and banks: €27.3m"><em>27.3</em></span><span class="sg dk sm" style="width:5.20%;background:#b9b2a6" data-tip="Payables, tax and other: €2.2m" tabindex="0" role="button" aria-label="Payables, tax and other: €2.2m"></span><span class="sg" style="width:30.26%;background:#2e8b57" data-tip="Owners' money: €12.8m" tabindex="0" role="button" aria-label="Owners' money: €12.8m"><em>12.8</em></span></div><ul class="bs-list"><li class="hl"><i style="background:#8a6fbf"></i><span>Loans from Mintos investors, the group and banks</span><b>€27.3m</b></li><li><i style="background:#b9b2a6"></i><span>Payables, tax and other</span><b>€2.2m</b></li><li><i style="background:#2e8b57"></i><span>Owners' money</span><b>€12.8m</b></li></ul></div></div>
<p class="tip-note">Hover or tap any block to see what it is.</p>
</figure>
<p>Even after that, 30% is a thick cushion for a lender with about three-quarters of its book falling due within a year, and well above the Albanian minimum of 10%. Leave out intangibles and tax assets and it is 27.8%. On the plain reading, 5% of the owners’ money was lent back to the group at the end of 2024, and at most 8% by the end of 2025. On the least favourable reading of one 336m lek balance the notes show as both a loan to and a loan from the parent, the 2024 figure could be as high as a third. Even that is below half the cushion, the point at which our veto would apply.</p>
<p>Of the €27.3m it had borrowed at the end of 2025, Mintos investors are about €11.5m — that figure is a September 2026 one — and the rest, on the latest breakdown we have, from the end of 2024, is group companies at 13 to 13.5% and Albanian banks. One exposure worth noting: at the end of 2024 its euro debts exceeded its euro assets by €15.9m, which was 131% of the owners’ money as it stood then. The notes list €17m of currency contracts with group companies, but another note says none were open at the year-end — the accounts contradict themselves, and we could not resolve it.</p>
<p>One more thing on funding: Mintos money is about two-fifths of everything ECFA has borrowed, and it held only €1.4m of cash at the end of 2025. Its loans are short, so the book repays itself quickly, but if Mintos money stopped, replacing it would take group or bank money.</p>
</section>
<!-- 4 -->
<section aria-labelledby="s4">
<div class="sec-head"><h2 id="s4">4 · How risky is Albania?</h2><span class="odds-chip" style="background:var(--gC)">about 4% · C</span></div>
<p class="lead">Moderate risk — a sound economy, and a regulator squeezing exactly this product.</p>
<div class="grid2">
<div class="card">
<h3>Our score for Albania: 3.12 out of 5 → grade C</h3>
<div class="qrow"><span class="q">Can the state change the rules? <em>20%</em></span><span class="meter" role="img" aria-label="2 out of 5"><i class="bd" style="width:40%"></i></span><b>2</b></div><div class="qrow"><span class="q">Will the currency hold? <em>15%</em></span><span class="meter" role="img" aria-label="4 out of 5"><i class="ok" style="width:80%"></i></span><b>4</b></div><div class="qrow"><span class="q">Can borrowers keep paying? <em>15%</em></span><span class="meter" role="img" aria-label="4 out of 5"><i class="ok" style="width:80%"></i></span><b>4</b></div><div class="qrow"><span class="q">Could politics or conflict break the business? <em>14%</em></span><span class="meter" role="img" aria-label="4 out of 5"><i class="ok" style="width:80%"></i></span><b>4</b></div><div class="qrow"><span class="q">Can lenders recover through the courts? <em>12%</em></span><span class="meter" role="img" aria-label="2 out of 5"><i class="bd" style="width:40%"></i></span><b>2</b></div><div class="qrow"><span class="q">Is the government stable and honest? <em>12%</em></span><span class="meter" role="img" aria-label="3 out of 5"><i class="wt" style="width:60%"></i></span><b>3</b></div><div class="qrow"><span class="q">Can the country pay its own debts? <em>12%</em></span><span class="meter" role="img" aria-label="3 out of 5"><i class="wt" style="width:60%"></i></span><b>3</b></div>
<p class="small">5 means the lowest risk. On our country scale this C caps all Albanian lenders together at 15% of a portfolio.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>For ECFA the country risk is the rulebook, not the economy. Growth and wages are solid and the lek has been strong, which helps a company that borrows in euros and lends in lek.</p>
<p>The pressure comes from the price cap. The Bank of Albania caps the total cost of small loans, and that cap has fallen from 171.41% in 2022 to 62.20% and then to 51.37% from July 2026. It is now set as the average of the previous half-year’s rates, so it falls on its own, and it is reset every January and July. ECFA’s interest and fees came to well above 51% a year in 2024 and 2025 — though the cap applies loan by loan and counts all costs, so the whole-book figure is only a rough guide. Since 2025 there are also affordability rules, fees must be paid upfront, a borrower may hold at most two loans at one lender, and lending at night is banned.</p>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- 5 -->
<section aria-labelledby="s5">
<div class="sec-head"><h2 id="s5">5 · The group, and who guarantees whom</h2><span class="odds-chip" style="background:var(--gB)">3% with the guarantee</span></div>
<p class="lead">Guarantees run in both directions — and the one pointing away from ECFA is larger than the company itself.</p>
<div class="flow f4" aria-label="How the guarantees run">
<div class="node"><b>SIA Mintos Finance No. 6</b>the Mintos company that issues the notes you buy</div>
<div class="arrow back">owes the money you lend</div>
<div class="node"><b>ECFA</b>the Albanian lender</div>
<div class="arrow back">Eleving guarantees what ECFA owes the issuer</div>
<div class="node"><b>Eleving Group</b>rated B by Fitch</div>
<div class="arrow red">Eleving owes them — and ECFA guarantees this debt too</div>
<div class="node"><b>Eleving’s 2028 bondholders</b>€72.6m outstanding</div>
</div>
<p>In your favour: the Mintos prospectus of 9 April 2026 states that Eleving Group guarantees to the issuer the performance of ECFA’s obligations, and ECFA pledges the underlying loans to that same company. Because Eleving carries a credit rating, our method lets that guarantee set the odds — though here it barely matters, since ECFA scores almost as well on its own. Note where the guarantee points: the prospectus says plainly that the guarantor is not guaranteeing the issuer’s obligations towards investors.</p>
<p>Against it: Eleving’s own bond prospectus of 18 February 2025 names ECFA as a guarantor of the group’s 13% bonds due October 2028 — €72.6m outstanding at the end of 2025, of €90m issued. That is about 5.7 times ECFA’s €12.8m of owners’ money. The prospectus limits the guarantee to what Albanian law allows; we could not establish what that limit comes to. If Eleving failed, that claim would compete with ECFA’s other creditors — though the loans pledged to the Mintos issuer are security it does not reach. ECFA’s own 2024 accounts do not mention it. It is not a guarantor of the newer 9.5% bonds due 2030.</p>
<p>Money also moves between them in the ordinary way: the group lends to ECFA — about 0.6bn lek at the end of 2024 — and charges it fees for professional services, 0.28bn lek in 2024, up 48%. Mintos itself is listed in ECFA’s accounts as a related party with the same ultimate beneficiary.</p>
</section>
<!-- 6 -->
<section aria-labelledby="s6">
<div class="sec-head"><h2 id="s6">6 · Anything else we found</h2><span class="odds-chip" style="background:var(--gD)">about 8% · D</span></div>
<div class="risks">
<div class="risk"><h3>Payouts close to the line <span class="st wt">Watch</span></h3><p>If the audited 2025 accounts show a payout above profit, or payouts exceed profit in any two years running from here, our veto applies to the company judged on its own — an E, at least a 25% chance. The parent’s guarantee would still set the published answer at about 3%, but the company underneath would be a different proposition.</p></div>
<div class="risk"><h3>Gaps in the accounts <span class="st wt">Watch</span></h3><p>The 2024 accounts do not mention the guarantee of the parent’s bonds. They label the profit line "loss for the year" — a translation slip. They show one 336m lek balance with the parent as both money owed to it and money owed by it. They contradict themselves on currency contracts. And "accrued expenses" rose from 0.14bn to 0.71bn lek without explanation.</p></div>
<div class="risk"><h3>Press allegations, none confirmed <span class="st wt">Unresolved</span></h3><p>In June 2025 the site zoom.al alleged rates as high as 800% and an illegal register of personal data, citing no source — that figure is far above the legal cap in any year we looked at, and far above what the accounts show the book earning. In August 2024 boldnews.al said Kredo was "one of several microcredit companies" already part of an investigation, naming no case and no authority. In August 2026 faktor.al questioned a large rise in IT costs paid abroad, while saying the figures do not by themselves prove a scheme to avoid tax. We found no regulator, prosecutor or court action naming ECFA.</p></div>
<div class="risk"><h3>Audit opinions and payments <span class="st ok">Clean</span></h3><p>Grant Thornton gave unqualified opinions on 2021, 2023 and 2024; the 2022 report was not obtained. We found no missed payment, suspension or restructuring on Mintos, and no downgrade of its Mintos score since 2023 — parts of that score were raised in October 2024. The Mintos prospectus reports no significant legal proceedings in the year to April 2026.</p></div>
</div>
<div class="bwc">
<div class="card"><h3>⬆ What would make us more comfortable</h3><p>Audited 2025 accounts confirming the summary with a clean opinion. Payouts kept inside profit in 2026. The 2028 bonds refinanced without ECFA as a guarantor. Income holding within 10% under the new cap. That would put it up to a B on its own.</p></div>
<div class="card"><h3>⬇ What would worry us</h3><p>Audited 2025 figures showing a payout above profit, or two later years running above profit — a veto on its own accounts. A qualified 2025 opinion. The cap cut towards 40%. Or a weaker Eleving, since its guarantee sets the odds and ECFA backs its bonds.</p></div>
<div class="card"><h3>🔁 When we look again</h3><p>When the audited 2025 accounts appear. With ECFA’s first-half 2026 figures. Each January and July, when the Bank of Albania resets the cap. If Eleving refinances its 2028 bonds. After Fitch’s next review of Eleving, and after each Mintos Risk Score update.</p></div>
</div>
</section>
<details class="more">
<summary>How we arrive at the score</summary>
<p>We score six questions from 1 to 5 and weight them: does it earn enough (30%), are its loans being repaid (20%), does it have enough of its own money to absorb losses (20%), how risky is its country (15%), can we trust its numbers (10%), and are there warning signs (5%). That gives a score out of 100. A is 80 and above, B is 65, C is 50, D is 35, and E is anything below. We then convert the score into a chance of failing within a year, using the long-run default rates S&P publishes for companies of each credit quality. Small lenders fail more often than the rated companies in that data, so every figure we publish is a floor rather than a best guess. We improve the odds in only two cases: a confirmed guarantee from a parent that carries a credit rating, or written support backed by money actually paid in, from a supporter that is financially stronger than the company itself. The first applies here. Some findings override the score entirely and set the answer to at least 25%: lending more than half the owners’ money to companies in the same group, an auditor who will not sign off cleanly, an audit report carrying a material uncertainty about the business continuing, a broken promise to lenders, late payments to investors, or owners taking out more than the business earned two years running. None applies on the accounts we have. Finally, we cap how much of a portfolio any one lender should represent — 20% for an A, 12% for a B, 6% for a C, 2% for a D, nothing for an E. Countries sit on their own separate scale, which is more generous because it covers a whole market: 40% for an A country, 25% for a B, 15% for a C, 5% for a D, nothing for an E. A lender is never allowed above its country’s limit, or above the limit for the group it belongs to.</p>
</details>
<details class="more">
<summary>What we read, and what we could not find</summary>
<p><b>What we read:</b> ECFA’s accounts for 2021, 2023 and 2024, each with the previous year’s figures, prepared to international standards and audited by Grant Thornton with unqualified opinions — the 2023 set read from a scan; a one-page unaudited management report for 2025; the Mintos base prospectus for these notes of 9 April 2026 and the key information document of 17 April 2026; Eleving Group’s bond prospectuses of 18 February 2025 and 29 September 2025; Eleving’s 2025 annual report, audited by BDO, and its unaudited first-half 2026 results; Mintos Risk Score updates and platform data of 13 September 2026; Albanian press coverage; and our own memo on Albania.</p>
<p><b>What we could not find:</b> the audited 2025 accounts, which were due by 31 July 2026 — the 2025 figures here come from a one-page summary; the 2022 audit report; an audited breakdown of the loan book for 2025; a resolution of the contradiction between the two notes on currency contracts; any explanation of the jump in accrued expenses; why the accounts show interest on the Mintos borrowing of about 3.2% of the balance when the platform pays investors about 8.6%; ECFA’s figures for the first half of 2026; what the Albanian-law limit on its guarantee of the parent’s bonds comes to; and whether that guarantee ends if those bonds are refinanced.</p>
</details>
<div class="nfa" role="note"><strong>THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.</strong> General information for education only. What happened in the past, and the odds we estimate, are not a guarantee of what happens next. P2P investing can result in the loss of all money invested. If in doubt, speak to a licensed financial adviser.</div>
<p class="foot">Crowdinform · Lender memo · ECFA Sh.A. (Kredo), Albania · 21 September 2026</p>
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Platform offering this project
Mintos LV
Risk Level
Medium
Return Level
Hoog
Risk Return Level
Medium
Minimale investering
EUR 50
Gefinancierd
EUR 12900,0M