Regulated
Bonus running
Can sell early
- Risk level
- High
- Risk-return
- Medium
- Start from
- €50
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ECFA
Albania
ECFA Sh.A., known on Mintos as Kredo, makes small consumer loans in Albania and belongs to Eleving Group. Nothing is lent to it on Mintos since October 2026. Our memo scores it 64 out of 100, a C, and puts the chance it fails to pay within a year at about 3%, counting its parent's guarantee.
Key figures
- Start from
- €50
Capital at risk. The rate is agreed, not guaranteed: if a borrower defaults you can lose some or all of your money.
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AI 64 MediumOur AI gives this project 64 out of 100: Medium. How the AI score works
Information, not personal investment advice. The AI score rates the documents the platform publishes, can be wrong, and does not predict returns.
AI review
AILender memo · ECFA (Kredo) · Albania
ECFA: how likely is it to fail to pay its lenders?
ECFA Sh.A. makes small consumer loans in Albania — typically €960 over 21 months. Mintos investors know it as Kredo, and it is owned by Eleving Group. It was called Kredo Finance until December 2024. This memo asks one question: what is the chance it fails to pay its lenders back in the next 12 months, and why.
Update, 9 November 2026In October 2026 Eleving Group repaid most of the money its companies had borrowed on Mintos, using a new €200 million bond (9%, due 2032). On 9 November 2026 Mintos showed €0 lent to ECFA by its investors (13 September: €11.7 million). The company is still listed as active on Mintos, but there is little or nothing to invest in now. Eleving uses Mintos as a flexible source of money and has come back before. This memo describes the risk if its notes return or if you still hold some. Eleving also said in October 2026 that its 13% bonds due 2028 would be exchanged or repaid early by 2 November 2026; what this memo says about those bonds dates from before that.
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. This memo was prepared with the help of AI from publicly available documents. It is general information for education only — not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything, and it does not take account of your circumstances. Figures may contain errors; check them against the original documents. Investing through P2P platforms can result in the loss of all money invested.
Our score
64/ 100
C Watch
ABCDE
3%chance it fails to pay in the next 12 months, counting its parent’s guarantee
3.1%judging the company on its own
Where that sits on our scale
Our framework caps this lender at 12% of a portfolio with the parent’s guarantee, or 6% judging it alone. That uses the whole 12% we allow for the Eleving group together, and sits inside Albania’s country limit of 15%. These caps are a convention of our scale, applied to every lender we cover. They are not advice about your money.
A genuinely profitable lender, one point short of a B — held back by how much the owners take out
This is a solidly profitable lender. It makes real money from lending, keeps a thick cushion, and its parent, Eleving Group, is rated B by Fitch (affirmed December 2025) and guarantees its obligations to the Mintos company that issues the notes. The weak point is that the owners take out almost everything it earns. Each figure below shows the odds as if that were the only risk the company faced.
💶 Earnings and safety cushion B
about 2%It kept €19.83 of every €100 of income in 2025, down from €33.23 — still a good year for a lender.
📉 Are its loans repaid? C
about 4%About a seventh of the book by value is in default — high, but stable, and more than covered by money set aside.
🇦🇱 How risky is Albania? C
about 4%A sound economy, but a regulator cutting the legal price cap on exactly this product, every six months.
⚖️ Anything else? D
about 8%The owners take out nearly all the profit, and the company guarantees its parent’s bonds.
Good news: it earns its money the ordinary way.Income is almost entirely interest and fees on small consumer loans, and in each of the last three years the company kept between €19.83 and €33.23 of every €100 of it. Interest on its own borrowing was covered about three times over in 2025. The owners’ money is 30.2% of everything the company owns, against an Albanian legal minimum of 10%. Grant Thornton signed the 2021, 2023 and 2024 accounts without qualification. The 2025 figures here are unaudited.
Careful: the owners take out almost everything, and one year they took out more.In 2024 they took 1.66bn lek — 147% of that year’s profit, and every lek of profit the company had kept from earlier years. Across 2023 to 2025 they took 113% of what it earned. Our automatic veto needs two years running above 100%, and only 2024 is above, so it does not apply. But 2025 looks like about 93%, which is only seven points below 100% — and we worked that figure out ourselves, from the change in retained profit in the unaudited one-page summary, so a difference of about €0.45m would take it above 100%. If the audited 2025 accounts show a payout above profit, 2024 and 2025 become two years running and the veto would apply on its own accounts.
Why this number matters
Every investment carries risk, and risk is not really a letter or a mark out of ten. It is two plain questions: how likely is it that this company fails, and how much of your money would you lose if it did. Put those together and you can see whether the reward is worth it.
For ECFA: about a 3% chance of failing in the next 12 months. If we assume about 30% of the money comes back in that case, the risk costs roughly 2.1% a year — against the 8.59% the loans pay. That leaves about 6.5% as the reward for taking the risk.
Show how this works
1. The rate is a promise, not a result
An advertised 8.59% is what you are promised if everything goes well. What you keep is that rate minus what failures cost you. So the rate on its own tells you very little — and the highest rates on a platform are usually high for a reason.
2. Put a price on the risk
Risk cost = chance of failing × share of your money you would not get back. Nobody knows the second number in advance. How much comes back has varied widely from case to case. We use 30% back, 70% lost, as our own working assumption so that memos can be compared with each other — it is not a measured figure, and the answer moves a lot if you choose differently.
3. Compare like for like
Take two imaginary lenders. One pays 14% but has a 17% chance of failing within the year: the risk costs about 11.9% a year, leaving roughly 2%. The other pays 9% with a 2.5% chance: the risk costs about 1.8%, leaving about 7%. The bigger number on the screen can easily be the worse one.
ECFA, worked through
| With guarantee | Alone | |
|---|---|---|
| Chance of failing in a year | 3.0% | 3.1% |
| Loss if it fails (70%) | × 0.7 | × 0.7 |
| Risk cost a year | 2.1% | 2.2% |
| Rate offered on Mintos | 8.59% | 8.59% |
| Left after the risk cost | about 6.5% | about 6.4% |
Three things this arithmetic leaves out. The guarantee behind the 3.0% column is given to the Mintos company, not to you, so it reaches you only through that chain (section 5). The guarantee barely moves the number here anyway — the company scores almost as well on its own. And a real failure does not arrive as a yearly cost; it arrives all at once, which is why how much you put in one place matters as much as the rate.
The 8.59% is Mintos’s average rate across its outstanding ECFA notes. That is the rate on 13 September 2026; on 9 November 2026 nothing was outstanding.
Where our number comes from: we score six questions out of five, weight them into a score out of 100, and convert that score into a chance of failure using the long-run default rates that S&P publishes for companies of each credit quality. Small lenders fail more often than rated companies, so we treat every figure as a floor rather than a best guess. It is our own estimate from public documents — not a credit rating, not a market price, and not a promise about what will happen.
The company at a glance
What it is
A licensed microcredit lenderBank of Albania licence since November 2017. 38 branches plus online and 222 staff at the end of 2024.
What it lends
€30 to €6,000Average €960 over 21 months — small, short and expensive, which is what the loss rates reflect.
How much it has lent
€37.7mEnd of 2025, after money set aside for bad debts, down 7.5% in lek over the year. Before that deduction the book was €42.7m.
Who owns it
Eleving GroupThrough a Latvian holding company, which holds all the voting shares; staff hold 4.63% without votes. The parent is rated B by Fitch.
Where an investor can lend to it
Platform
MintosListed there as "Eleving Group AL (Kredo)".
Borrowed from investors
€0Read on 9 November 2026 — Mintos’s own figure. See the update at the top.
Average rate
8.59%13 September 2026 — Mintos’s own figure. On 9 November 2026 Mintos showed no rate, because nothing was outstanding.
Protection offered
Buyback, plus the parent’s guaranteeBuyback at 60 days late; Eleving Group guarantees ECFA to the Mintos company, and the underlying loans are pledged to it.
Mintos Risk Score
7.9Updated 9 October 2026, read on 9 November 2026 — Mintos’s own score, not ours. We found no downgrade since 2023.
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Information, not personal investment advice. The AI score rates the documents the platform publishes, can be wrong, and does not predict returns.
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