ESTO AS

ESTO AS lets people in Estonia pay for purchases in instalments, online and in shops. Mintos investors lend it money and earn interest. Our memo scores it 70 out of 100, a B, and puts the chance it fails to pay within a year at about 2%.
Key project data
Average Rate
6.94%
Outstanding Investments
28.8M EUR
Would AI invest?
70/100
100
Invest Now
AI-Generated Overview

This overview is generated using artificial intelligence based on information available on the platform’s project page and publicly accessible data. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial guidance, risk assessment, or project scoring. Platforms and project owners are not involved in the creation, review, or endorsement of this content.
AI project overview
Condensed summary based on project data
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<div class="ci-memo" data-ai-score="70" id="esto-memo">
<header class="hero">
<div class="kicker">Lender memo · ESTO · Estonia</div>
<h1>ESTO: how likely is it to fail to pay its lenders?</h1>
<p class="muted">ESTO AS lets Estonians pay for things in instalments at the checkout — online and in shops. Mintos investors lend it money. This memo asks one question: what is the chance it fails to pay its lenders back in the next 12 months, and why.</p>
<div class="meta">
<span class="chip">Written 21 September 2026</span>
<span class="chip">Based on the group’s 2025 accounts — the pre-audit filing, plus the audited year-end figures — and its first-half 2026 report</span>
<span class="chip">Checked line by line by a separate reviewer</span>
</div>
</header>
<div class="nfa" role="note"><strong>THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.</strong> This memo was prepared with the help of AI from publicly available documents. It is general information for education only — not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything, and it does not take account of your circumstances. Figures may contain errors; check them against the original documents. Investing through P2P platforms can result in the loss of all money invested.</div>
<!-- ANSWER -->
<div aria-labelledby="ans-h" class="answer">
<div class="score">
<div class="kicker">Our score</div>
<div class="big tabnum"><b>70</b><span>/ 100</span></div>
<span class="grade gB"><i>B</i> Sound</span>
<div>
<div aria-hidden="true" class="scale"><div style="background:var(--gA)"></div><div class="on" style="background:var(--gB)"></div><div style="background:var(--gC)"></div><div style="background:var(--gD)"></div><div style="background:var(--gE)"></div></div>
<div class="scale-l"><span>A</span><span>B</span><span>C</span><span>D</span><span>E</span></div>
</div>
<div class="odds">
<div class="odd main"><b class="tabnum">2%</b><span>chance it fails to pay in the next 12 months</span></div>
<div class="odd"><b class="tabnum">12%</b><span>the most of a portfolio our framework would put here</span></div>
</div>
<div aria-label="Where 2% sits on our scale of failure chances" class="bands">
<div class="kicker" style="font-size:.7rem">Where that sits on our scale</div>
<div class="bandbar"><span>0–2%</span><span class="on">2–5%</span><span>5–10%</span><span>10–20%</span><span>20%+</span></div>
</div>
<div class="limit"><b>Our framework caps this lender at 12% of a portfolio.</b> That is the cap for a B on our scale. Estonia’s country limit is 25%, so it does not limit this lender. No parent guarantee improves the odds: ESTO AS is the group’s profit engine, and nothing in the group stands behind it. These caps are a convention of our scale, applied to every lender we cover. They are not advice about your money.</div>
</div>
<div>
<h2 id="ans-h">A very profitable lender in a safe country — whose arrears nobody outside the company can see</h2>
<p class="muted" style="margin:0 0 4px">ESTO keeps €31 of every €100 it earns, its profit grew 48% in 2025, and Estonia is among the safest places we cover to lend. The one thing missing is the most basic: it publishes no figure for how many of its loans are late. It sells bad loans quickly and books the loss on the sale, which keeps the usual warning signs quiet. Each figure below shows the odds as if that were the only risk the company faced.</p>
<div class="subs">
<div class="sub"><div class="top">💶 Earnings and safety cushion <em style="background:var(--gA)">A</em></div><b class="tabnum">about 1%</b><p>€31 of every €100 of income is left over, up from €26 — and the owners’ money more than doubled in a year.</p></div>
<div class="sub"><div class="top">📉 Are its loans repaid? <em style="background:var(--gD)">D</em></div><b class="tabnum">about 12%</b><p>We can see what bad loans cost — about €4.4m a year — but not how many are going bad.</p></div>
<div class="sub"><div class="top">🇪🇪 How risky is Estonia? <em style="background:var(--gA)">A</em></div><b class="tabnum">about 1%</b><p>The euro, strong courts, and a government that pays its debts. New credit rules arrive in November.</p></div>
<div class="sub"><div class="top">⚖️ Anything else? <em style="background:var(--gC)">C</em></div><b class="tabnum">about 5%</b><p>Two loss-making sister companies, a board replaced last year, and a one-person management board at the holding company.</p></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="flags">
<div class="flag ok"><strong>Good news: it makes a lot of money, and it is audited.</strong>Income rose from €26.5m to €32.2m in 2025 and profit from €6.8m to €10.1m. Out of every €100 of income, €31.40 was left over after everything — bad loans, interest, running the business. Both columns of the chart below add to exactly €100, and what is left over is the reported profit. KPMG audited the 2025 accounts of both the group and ESTO AS, and the first-half 2026 report says there were no material findings; the income split below comes from the annual report the group filed before that audit was finished. The owners’ money in the business more than doubled, from €11.7m to €25.3m — from 14.8% of everything the group owns to about 25%.</div>
<div class="flag wt"><strong>Careful: for 2025, nobody outside the company can see how many loans are late.</strong>Most lenders publish how much of the book is thirty, sixty or ninety days overdue. For 2025 ESTO publishes one headline figure — a net bad-loan ratio of 0.1% — with no ageing table, no stage split and no cover ratio behind it. Its own report for 2024 gave 5%, on a basis that is not the same as the years before it. A figure that moves from 5% to 0.1% in a year, with the definition changing in between, tells a reader very little — particularly for a lender that sells or writes off problem loans early and books the cost as a loss on the sale rather than as an impairment. The cost itself is visible and steady, about €4.4m a year, but for a book growing 29% in a year the number that matters is how many of this year’s loans go bad, and it is not published.</div>
</div>
<!-- WHY IT MATTERS -->
<div class="why">
<h2>Why this number matters</h2>
<p class="wlead">Every investment carries risk, and risk is not really a letter or a mark out of ten. It is two plain questions: <b>how likely is it that this company fails</b>, and <b>how much of your money would you lose if it did</b>. Put those together and you can see whether the reward is worth it.</p>
<div class="wbox">
<p style="margin:0"><b>For ESTO:</b> about a <b>2% chance</b> of failing in the next 12 months. If we assume about 30% of the money comes back in that case, the risk costs roughly <b>1.5% a year</b> — against the <b>6.94%</b> the loans pay. That leaves about <b>5.5%</b> as the reward for taking the risk.</p>
</div>
<details class="wmore">
<summary>Show how this works</summary>
<div class="wgrid">
<div class="wcard"><h3>1. The rate is a promise, not a result</h3><p>An advertised 6.94% is what you are promised if everything goes well. What you keep is that rate minus what failures cost you. So the rate on its own tells you very little — and the highest rates on a platform are usually high for a reason.</p></div>
<div class="wcard"><h3>2. Put a price on the risk</h3><p><b>Risk cost = chance of failing × share of your money you would not get back.</b> Nobody knows the second number in advance. How much comes back has varied widely from case to case. We use 30% back, 70% lost, as our own working assumption so that memos can be compared with each other — it is not a measured figure, and the answer moves a lot if you choose differently.</p></div>
<div class="wcard"><h3>3. Compare like for like</h3><p>Take two imaginary lenders. One pays 14% but has a 17% chance of failing within the year: the risk costs about 11.9% a year, leaving roughly 2%. The other pays 9% with a 2.5% chance: the risk costs about 1.8%, leaving about 7%. The bigger number on the screen can easily be the worse one.</p></div>
</div>
<div class="sum">
<b>ESTO, worked through</b>
<div class="tscroll"><table>
<thead><tr><th> </th><th>On our numbers</th></tr></thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td>Chance of failing in a year</td><td>2.1%</td></tr>
<tr><td>Loss if it fails (70%)</td><td>× 0.7</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Risk cost a year</b></td><td><b>1.5%</b></td></tr>
<tr><td>Rate offered on Mintos</td><td>6.94%</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Left after the risk cost</b></td><td><b>about 5.5%</b></td></tr>
</tbody>
</table></div>
<p style="margin:8px 0 0">Two things this arithmetic leaves out. The 2% rests on figures the company chooses to publish, and the one figure it does not publish is how many of its loans are late — so the second section of this memo is the part to read before trusting the first. And a real failure does not arrive as a yearly cost; it arrives all at once, which is why how much you put in one place matters as much as the rate.</p>
<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font-size:.85rem;color:var(--ink-3)">The 6.94% is Mintos’s average rate across its outstanding ESTO notes.</p>
</div>
<p class="fine"><b>Where our number comes from:</b> we score six questions out of five, weight them into a score out of 100, and convert that score into a chance of failure using the long-run default rates that S&amp;P publishes for companies of each credit quality. Small lenders fail more often than rated companies, so we treat every figure as a floor rather than a best guess. It is our own estimate from public documents — not a credit rating, not a market price, and not a promise about what will happen.</p>
</details>
</div>
<!-- GLANCE -->
<div class="band">The company at a glance</div>
<div class="glance">
<div class="tile"><div class="k">What it is</div><b>A licensed consumer lender</b><p>Licence from the Estonian Financial Supervision Authority since June 2017. Most of the business is in Estonia; sister companies operate in Latvia and Lithuania.</p></div>
<div class="tile"><div class="k">What it lends</div><b>€50 to €10,000</b><p>Paid back over 3 to 60 months, at rates from about 24% a year. It also offers a free "split into three" option at the checkout, which it funds itself.</p></div>
<div class="tile"><div class="k">How much it has lent</div><b class="tabnum">€94.0m</b><p>The group’s book at the end of 2025, after money set aside for bad debts. It grew 29% during the year. By June 2026 the book before that deduction was €107m.</p></div>
<div class="tile"><div class="k">Who owns it</div><b>ESTO Holdings OÜ</b><p>No single controlling owner: the largest holding is 14.35%, and about a quarter sits in two bank nominee accounts whose owners are not public.</p></div>
</div>
<div class="band">Where an investor can lend to it</div>
<div class="glance">
<div class="tile"><div class="k">Platform</div><b>Mintos</b><p>Listed there as "ESTO (EE)", since 2019. Its Latvian and Lithuanian sister companies are listed separately.</p></div>
<div class="tile"><div class="k">Borrowed from investors</div><b class="tabnum">€28.8m</b><p>13 September 2026 — Mintos’s own figure from our register capture. Mintos’s overview page showed €30.4m the same day; the two are captured differently.</p></div>
<div class="tile"><div class="k">Average rate</div><b class="tabnum">6.94%</b><p>13 September 2026 — Mintos’s own figure.</p></div>
<div class="tile"><div class="k">Protection offered</div><b>Buyback — terms vary</b><p>Our register records the buyback as varying by note series. Aggregator sites report 60 days and ESTO keeping 10% of each loan; that is their figure, not Mintos’s. We could not read Mintos’s own lending-company page, which needs a browser.</p></div>
<div class="tile"><div class="k">Mintos Risk Score</div><b class="tabnum">9.0</b><p>Updated 9 July 2026 — Mintos’s own score, not ours. One of the highest on the platform. The part covering how the arrangement is structured is its weakest, at 4.0.</p></div>
</div>
</div>
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