Mintos • DelfinGroup
P2P marketplace
DelfinGroup
AS DelfinGroup lends money to people in Latvia and runs pawnshops, under the name Banknote. Mintos investors lend it money and earn interest. Our memo scores it 57 out of 100, a C, and puts the chance it fails to pay within a year at about 4.3%.
Key project data
Average Rate
8.31%
Outstanding Investments
18.89M EUR
Would AI invest?
57/100
1
100
AI-Generated Overview
AI project overview
Condensed summary based on project data
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<div class="ci-memo" data-ai-score="57" id="delfingroup-memo"><header class="hero">
<div class="kicker">Lender memo · Latvia</div>
<h1>DelfinGroup: how likely is it to fail to pay back the investors who lend to it?</h1>
<p class="muted">AS DelfinGroup is a Latvian company that lends money to people and runs pawnshops, under the name Banknote. Its shares are listed in Riga. Separately, investors on Mintos lend money to it. This memo asks one question: what is the chance that DelfinGroup fails to pay those investors back in the next 12 months, and why.</p>
<p class="muted">We have used its audited group accounts for 2023, 2024 and 2025, all signed off by BDO with no reservations, and its own unaudited figures for the first half of 2026 — which are the newest numbers it has published. Its subsidiary ViziaFinance is covered by a separate memo of ours.</p>
<div class="meta">
<span class="chip">Written 30 September 2026</span>
<span class="chip">Sources: three audited years, plus H1 2026</span>
<span class="chip">Replaces our memo of 21 September</span>
</div>
</header>
<div class="nfa" role="note"><strong>THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.</strong> This memo was prepared with the help of AI from publicly available documents. It is general information for education only — not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything, and it does not take account of your circumstances. Figures may contain errors; check them against the original documents. Investing through P2P platforms can result in the loss of all money invested.</div>
<!-- ANSWER -->
<div aria-labelledby="ans-h" class="answer">
<div class="score"><div class="sf-left">
<div class="kicker">Our score</div>
<div class="big tabnum"><b>57</b><span>/ 100</span></div>
<span class="grade"><i>C</i> Keep watching</span>
<div>
<div aria-hidden="true" class="scale"><div data-sf="is1"></div><div data-sf="is2"></div><div class="on" data-sf="is3"></div><div data-sf="is4"></div><div data-sf="is5"></div></div>
<div class="scale-l"><span>A</span><span>B</span><span>C</span><span>D</span><span>E</span></div>
</div>
</div><div class="sf-right"><div class="odds">
<div class="odd main"><b class="tabnum">about 4.3%</b><span>chance it fails to pay in the next 12 months</span></div>
<div class="odd"><b class="tabnum">1 in 23</b><span>the same risk, counted differently</span></div>
</div>
<div aria-label="Where about 4.3% sits on our scale of failure chances" class="bands">
<div class="kicker" data-sf="is6">Where that sits on our scale</div>
<div class="bandbar"><span>0–2%</span><span class="on">2–5%</span><span>5–10%</span><span>10–20%</span><span>20%+</span></div>
</div>
<div class="limit"><b>Our method caps this lender at 6% of a portfolio.</b> Two separate limits apply and the tighter one wins. The company scores C, and our company scale allows a C up to 6%. Latvia is a grade-B country on our separate country scale, which allows 25% for all Latvian lenders added together, so the country limit is not the one that applies here. That 6% covers the group as a whole, and our memo on its subsidiary ViziaFinance counts inside it rather than alongside it. These caps are a convention of our scale, applied to every lender we cover. They are not advice about your money.</div>
</div></div>
<div>
<h2 id="ans-h">The bond we worried about is repaid. What has taken its place is worse: bad loans, and a bank that can ask for its money back from the middle of October.</h2>
<p>Profit is up 52% in the first half of 2026. That is mostly because income grew by €2.7m. About €1.0m came off the cost of selling and administration, which helped; about €1.2m more was charged for bad loans, which pulled the other way. Money lost on borrowers who never pay has taken a bigger share of income in every single period for three years. Loans more than 90 days late rose 54.6% in six months, from €6.7m to €10.4m, while the money set aside across the whole book rose only 13.6%.</p>
<p class="muted" data-sf="is7">We ask six questions about every lender: does it earn enough, are its loans being repaid, does it have enough of its own money to absorb losses, how risky is its country, can we trust its numbers, and are there warning signs. Each is scored 1 to 5 and weighted. The four cards below cover five of those six — the first card holds two of them — and only trust in the numbers has no card of its own; it runs through section 5. The weights differ a lot: earnings 30%, the loan book 20%, the cushion 20%, the country 15%, trust 10%, warning signs 5%, so the card carrying our worst mark is also the one that counts for least. The cards are not meant to be added up; the weighted result is the <b>about 4.3%</b> at the top of this page.</p>
<div class="subs">
<div class="sub"><div class="top">💶 Earnings and safety cushion <em data-sf="is3">C</em></div><b class="tabnum">about 3.1%</b><p>Income grew from €50m to €78m in three years and it has made money every year. But the owners’ money is only €19 in every €100 of what the group owns, about half of what it earns is paid out as dividends, and the tightest promise it has made to its lenders has about 8% of room left in it.</p></div>
<div class="sub"><div class="top">📉 Loan book <em data-sf="is4">D</em></div><b class="tabnum">about 12.5%</b><p>Loans more than 90 days late went from 4.35% of what borrowers owed at the end of 2025 to <b>6.30% by June 2026</b> — €6.7m to €10.4m, up 54.6% in six months — while the money set aside across the whole book rose only 13.6%. Cover of the worst loans fell from 277% to 203%.</p></div>
<div class="sub"><div class="top">🇱🇻 Country: Latvia <em data-sf="is1">A</em></div><b class="tabnum">about 1%</b><p>The euro, so no currency risk for an investor whose own money is in euros. Courts that work. The government fell in May 2026 and a new coalition was confirmed a fortnight later, an election was due on 3 October, and from January 2027 a new supervisor takes over.</p></div>
<div class="sub"><div class="top">⚖️ The owner and other risks <em data-sf="is5">E</em></div><b class="tabnum">about 19%</b><p>Its majority owner takes cash out of DelfinGroup and puts none back into it — it needs the money for a bank it is building. A bank lender can demand repayment from 16 October. And the regulator has fined it €285,000 with a warning about its licence.</p></div>
</div>
<div class="flag amber"><b>One date — 16 October 2026 — that was not in our earlier memo.</b> The company’s own half-year accounts say that <b>from 16 October 2026 one of its bank lenders may end the agreement whenever it likes and demand repayment, on 30 days’ notice</b>. The group owed banks <b>€33.0m</b> at 30 June 2026, all of it borrowed by the parent company. The report does not say how much of that borrowing sits under the loan carrying that right — only that it is a single loan whose interest rate moves with the market, maturing in 2027, alongside fixed-rate loans running to 2028. It does name the bank lenders elsewhere: Citadele, secured up to €6.37m, and Multitude Bank, secured up to €17m and again up to €17.25m. The group held <b>€2.1m of cash</b>. This is not a prediction that the bank will act. Clauses like this are common in bank lending and usually mark a scheduled review rather than any concern about the borrower, and 30 days’ notice on a book that collects money every month is not a demand for cash tomorrow — but we have no information either way about this particular agreement. One thing on the other side: during 2026 this company has swapped two bond issues into longer ones, sold a new €3.9m issue in July and repaid €8.2m early out of its own resources in August. It is not a borrower that has lost access to money.</div>
<div class="flag"><b>A correction to our memo of 21 September: the bond we warned about was already half gone before it was repaid.</b> Our memo of 21 September treated a €15m bond maturing on 25 November 2026 as the central worry. It was repaid early and in full on 25 August 2026. But it had already been cut to <b>€7.1m</b> in May, when holders were offered a swap into new notes running to 2029, and the subordinated issue beside it — one that is repaid only after the other bonds — was cut to €1.1m in July. So the actual cash payment on 25 August was about <b>€8.2m, not €15m</b>. We were describing a wall that had been half demolished four months earlier, and we should have checked. Section 5 lists this and the other corrections, and what they did to our answer.</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- WHY IT MATTERS -->
<div class="why">
<h2>Why this number matters</h2>
<p class="wlead">Every investment carries risk, and risk is not really a letter or a mark out of ten. It is two plain questions: <b>how likely is it that this company fails</b>, and <b>how much of your money would you lose if it did</b>. Put those together and you can see whether the reward is worth it.</p>
<div class="wbox">
<p data-sf="is8"><b>For DelfinGroup:</b> about a <b>4.3% chance</b> of failing in the next 12 months. If we assume about 30% of the money comes back in that case, the risk costs roughly <b>3.0% a year</b> — so the 8.8% rate is worth about <b>5.76% once the risk is paid for</b>.</p>
</div>
<details class="wmore">
<summary>Show how this works</summary>
<div class="wgrid">
<div class="wcard"><h3>1. The rate is a promise, not a result</h3><p>An advertised 8.8% is what you are promised if everything goes well. What you keep is that rate minus what failures cost you. So the rate on its own tells you very little.</p></div>
<div class="wcard"><h3>2. Put a price on the risk</h3><p><b>Risk cost = the chance of failing × the share you do not get back.</b> We assume 30% comes back and 70% is lost. That 30% is an assumption we apply to every lender so they can be compared with each other — it is not a measured figure, and the answer moves a lot if you choose differently.</p></div>
<div class="wcard"><h3>3. Compare like for like</h3><p>Take two imaginary lenders. One pays 14% but has a 17% chance of failing within the year: the risk costs about 11.9% a year, leaving roughly 2%. The other pays 9% with a 2.5% chance: the risk costs about 1.8%, leaving about 7%. The bigger number on the screen can easily be the worse one.</p></div>
</div>
<div class="sum">
<b>DelfinGroup, worked through</b>
<div class="tscroll"><table>
<thead><tr><th> </th><th>With our figures</th></tr></thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td>Chance of failing in a year</td><td>4.3%</td></tr>
<tr><td>Loss if it fails (70%)</td><td>× 0.7</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Risk cost a year</b></td><td><b>3.0%</b></td></tr>
<tr><td>Rate on the Mintos funding</td><td>8.8%</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Left after the risk cost</b></td><td><b>about 5.76%</b></td></tr>
</tbody>
</table></div>
<p class="small" data-sf="is9">One caution on that rate. 8.8% is what <b>DelfinGroup itself pays</b> on its Mintos funding, taken from its own accounts at 30 June 2026. What an investor receives is not that figure, and the two are not measured the same way. Mintos publishes an investor net return of 9.0% on personal loans in our capture of 13 September 2026 — above the 8.8% the company books, because that 9.0% is a realised return on one product for the whole DelfinGroup brand, ViziaFinance included, while the 8.8% is what this company paid across all its Mintos funding at 30 June 2026. The two cannot be subtracted from one another. One more caution, in the company’s favour this time: we have <b>not</b> raised the 30% recovery assumption to allow for the security registered in favour of the Mintos companies, because we cannot put a figure on what it would actually return. If it is worth something, the figure above is on the cautious side.</p>
</div>
</details>
</div>
<!-- GLANCE -->
<div class="band">The company at a glance</div>
<div class="glance">
<div class="tile"><div class="k">What it is</div><b>A Latvian lender and pawnbroker</b><p>Not a bank, and it takes no deposits. Licensed by Latvia’s consumer rights centre since 2016, with shares listed on Nasdaq Riga. It ran 89 branches in Latvia at 30 June 2026, up from 88 at the end of 2025. From 1 January 2027 the Bank of Latvia supervises it instead.</p></div>
<div class="tile"><div class="k">Who it lends to</div><b>People, in instalments and against pledges</b><p>Instalment loans with nothing pledged against them, averaging about four years, plus pawn loans against goods, plus second-hand retail. It also lends in Lithuania and set up a Romanian subsidiary in July 2025 that has no revenue yet.</p></div>
<div class="tile"><div class="k">How big its loan book is</div><b>About €152.7m</b><p>After money set aside, at 30 June 2026. Income was €78.2m in 2025 and €39.8m in the first half of 2026. Profit after tax was €9.6m in 2025 and €5.7m in the half.</p></div>
<div class="tile"><div class="k">Who owns it</div><b>INDEXO, about 72%</b><p>A Latvian pension manager that also owns INDEXO Banka, which took control between December 2025 and January 2026. DelfinGroup stays listed, with minority shareholders. Section 4 explains why that ownership is a risk rather than a comfort.</p></div>
</div>
<div class="band">Where an investor can lend to it</div>
<div class="glance">
<div class="tile"><div class="k">Platform</div><b>Mintos</b><p>Listed there as “DelfinGroup (Banknote)”. Its subsidiary VIZIA is listed separately and has its own memo; under our method the two share one limit. Mintos also shows money owed to investors and not yet passed on. On the personal-loan line of the DelfinGroup brand that was €243,228 against €19.99m outstanding — about 1.2%, against 1.5% for all personal loans on the platform and 0.7% for the middle brand on that line — and it had been waiting 2 days on average, against 3 days for the middle brand. That reads as an ordinary settlement lag rather than a sign of trouble.</p></div>
<div class="tile"><div class="k">What the Mintos money costs it</div><b>8.8%</b><p>The average rate DelfinGroup paid on its Mintos funding at 30 June 2026 — weighted by the size of each loan — taken from its own accounts, when it owed the platform €29.5m. Mintos’s own figure for the amount outstanding to investors was €18.9m for Banknote at 4 November 2026, plus €10.4m for VIZIA. Mintos does publish what an investor actually receives, but for the DelfinGroup brand as a whole rather than for this company alone. In our capture of 13 September 2026 it was 9.0% on personal loans, 8.0% on the revolving pool and 6.9% on pawnbroking. That brand also covers ViziaFinance.</p></div>
<div class="tile"><div class="k">Mintos risk score</div><b>9.1 out of 10</b><p>Mintos’s own mark, not ours, read on the Mintos register on 4 November 2026. The four parts behind it are 9.0 for how the loans perform, 9.5 for servicing, 9.7 for buyback strength and 6.5 for the structure of the arrangement — the structure is much the weakest of the four. Mintos raised one part of the score in January 2026 on a higher capitalisation ratio — the company’s own measure of its safety cushion — then cut the same part in April 2026 on a lower one. The register stamps this score as last updated on 9 October 2026.</p></div>
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Platform offering this project
Mintos LV
P2P marketplace
Return Level
High
Risk Level
High
Risk Return Level
Medium
Min. Investment
EUR 50
Total Funded
EUR 13100.0M
